Open for everyone.

The 2009 Super 14 is more open than ever. With 11 teams within just 8 points after round 5, even these strange Crusaders can make the semifinals.

Only Cheetahs, Lions and... *sigh*, Highlanders seem not to be contenders. No, I don't resign. The Highlanders are only 10 points away. They can. Yes, they can.

Th point is that this season, specially after this week 5 has witnessed that any team can beat everyone. Waratahs and Sharks lost to Brumbies and Reds respectively. Waratahs have also suffered yet another blow to their front row, with Freier out for the rest of the competition. Something must be asked to their backs when the forward pack is decimated little by little.

Should the Bulls win at Westpack stadium this week, they would be clear favourites to get the first semifinal spot. If they crack like Waratahs and Sharks (and remember that is possible, given the record that the Bulls have in NZ), the Hurricanes will place themselves among the top 4 with ease and looking to the eye to anyone.

Blues, Stormers seem to be back, and the Chiefs didn't look so good at Invercagill as they did two weeks ago in Hamilton.

Things change from week to week and this is, once more, a marathon, a competition to be regular. Who can demonstrate the recipe of what is needed to be a super champion?

Super 14 round 5 predictions

Little by little, the competition begins to get some sense to my dumb understanding.
Last week's results were more understandable for me, although I had not realised (or didn't want to believe) how low have the Crusaders fallen.

The Sharks continue their Australasian trip with a game in Brisbane, while the Bulls and Hurricanes rest with their sights put on the next weekend clash.

This would make some sense to me:

Blues 36 - Cheetahs 18 (Don't look back, you need five from this one)
Brumbies 25 - Waratahs 21 (Canberra vs Sydney games have always favoured the home team)
Crusaders 18 - Western Force 24 (I prefer to be ready for the worst scenario)
Higlanders 23 - Chiefs 34 (Go Highlanders!)
Reds 13 - Sharks 16 (Sharks would do well to start putting an eye on the second part of the competition)
Stormers 20 - Lions 15 (This year the Stormers don't look so good. They need de Villiers to lead them)

Fourth place's curse

The fourth place is one of the most desired places when a team look to their position in the ranks.
While positions one and two usually have long-term owners, there's an enormous fight to get the other two positions that qualify for the playoffs.

Last year, there was hardly a week when the fourth placed would not go down to lose the next game and fall to 5th, 6th or 7th. Force, Blues, Chiefs, Stormers and Hurricanes kept fighting to the very last game for the possibility to classify as 4th. In most of the cases, being placed 4th was a curse for the next game.

So must be John Mitchell thinking right now. After last week's display at Canberra and being able to get as far as 4th placed, they have fallen at Hamilton 31-13 to the Chiefs who get 5 points from this one and blow the starting whistle, signalling that their season is finally started. Depending on the outcome of this weekend's games, they may well be just 6 points away from the playoffs. May the others start running as the Chiefs run has already started.

But beware Chiefs. Getting there is not enough. Last year you kept climbing on until you reached the fourth place. Then you fell.

Get classified, but you'd do well to avoid resting at the fourth place.

Super 14 round 4 predictions

Naked, "crystal ball"-less and having misserably failed to understand what would happen in round 3, I'm only proud for my right prediction of the game at Cape Town.

The game at Canberra was a shock, and the one at Hamilton, a pity.

So, without any skills or preternatural aid, let's see if I have enough wits to decypher what's going on.

Chiefs 33 - Force 26 (I still believe in this team)
Waratahs 23 - Reds 15 (Who can stop the 'tahs?)
Hurricanes 38 - Cheetahs 18 (Things start going smoothly for the 'canes)
Blues 24 - Sharks 20 (Defense against the Sharks. Defense)
Highlanders 22 - Crusaders 34 (The Crusaders are a very good team)
Bulls 15 - Stormers 13 (I have got a friend who says that games between SA sides follow their own logic. I agree)

A little help for the Crusaders

The Crusaders are the Super team. They have the tradition, they have the passion and they have the winning attitude.

What they may be lacking is luck.

Forced absences: Robbie Deans, Daniel Carter, Scott Hamilton, Greg Sommerville, Mose Tu'iali and Ali Williams.

"Bad-luck added absences": Leon MacDonald, Andy Ellis, Brad Thorn, Corey Flynn.
Besides, a number of other senior players, most notably Richie McCaw, have not featured in at least one game due to injury.

And after this long list, their brave coach, takes it on the chin and says that it is due to their own errors (mostly at goal kicking, where Colin Slade is 4 from 11 and Brett is 2 from 4) that they have lost against Brumbies and Hurricanes.

The Crusaders are an amazing team; no doubt I will pick them for five points against my beloved Highlanders next week and perhaps they will cement their position on the upper part of the ranks.

But one bad news at a time, please; injuries to Flynn, Ellis, Thorn and MacDonald seem a plot against them.

Not my team, but a team that I admire; may goddess Nikhé smile upon them again.

Hurricanes, eternal contenders

Shwalger, Hore, Tialata, Thrush, Eaton, Waldrom, Lavave, So'oailo, Weepu, Kirkpatrick, Gear, Nonu, Smith, Guilford, Jane.

Would anyone dare to deny Hurricanes claims to have a team good enough to win it all? And yet, only after rounds one and two we have started to see them playing the way we know they ought to.

Only a good win against the Cheetahs next week is acceptable. If we are to think that the loss against the Waratahs was an exception, the Hurricanes should show it on the field. Winning at Christchurch was a good effort, but we all know they are capable of good efforts. What we do need to believe is that they can win 5 games in a row.

Or else they are not ready to win this Super 14.

Beware Blues

Three rounds are gone now, and from the "big three" (Crusaders, Waratahs and Sharks) of the opening round, we have moved onto the "new big three" where only the Bulls have replaced the Crusaders and nothing else has changed.

If only, the Hurricanes begin to deliver while Blues and Force have surprisingly performed quite well.

Auckland's fans, quite particularly, seem to have tons of reasons to be happy. Their point is that in a talented team, plagued by injuries and an unusual share of fatherhood leaves, 10 points from the first three rounds is a good record, provided the three games have been away. Defence way seems to have been learnt this weekend when the Stormers were only able to score 8 points.

Good one. Can't argue with it, can you?

Well, let's see. I remember last year's Blues season and their first three rounds were quite impressive. 3 wins and 15 points were clearly a better start of the season. The trip to South Africa started in round 2 and it also included 2 wins and one defeat and the Blues collected 11 points compared to this year's 10. The problems with the Blues came after it. Losses to the Force (at home), Waratahs and Brumbies (at home) almost automatically left them out of the semifinals race.

This year has not started better for them and the hard yards lay ahead. Hurricanes, Sharks, Waratahs and Brumbies await. While it is true they are on the good track, the main obstacles still are to come.

So beware, Blues.

Super 14 round 3: Predictions

Last week both New Zealand powerhorses, Blues and Crusaders left me. The Blues were over-powered by the Bulls and the Crusaders did a 'Highlanders' when hey let the Brumbies score the winning converted try during injury time.

So, my crystal ball now has got a scrap but is not shattered yet.

Let's see what the weekend games will bring, perhaps my palantir will break at last:

Crusaders 19 - Hurricanes 11 (Sorry folks, but the Crusaders are just too good)
Chiefs 25 - Sharks 24 (Do no underestimate them, the Chiefs are a great team)
Waratahs 32 - Highlanders 23 (Defense, guys, defense)
Brumbies 30 - Force 18 (They are on a roll)
Stormers 24 - Blues 29 (Attack, guys, attack)
Lions 20 - Bulls 18 (It's amazing how powerful are the Bulls at home, isn't it?)
Reds 24 - Cheetahs 13 (So that would leave Cheetahs and Highlanders winless, wouldn't it?)

If you are in a mood to see a good rugby match, pay attention to the Sharks at Hamilton.

PS: Isn't it amazing to see me predicting such a South African debacle?

Questions: What's going on?

I'm totally shocked.

Super 14 rounds 1 and 2 are gone and New Zealand franchises are really struggling to get results while things certainly seem so easy for Sharks, Bulls and Waratahs. The best three New Zealand sides have the same amount of wins than both the Force and the Lions have while the worst are at the Reds and Cheetahs level.

So, what's going on?

Graham Henry may complain about injuries to the leading senior players: Ali Williams, Mils Muliaina, Sione Lauaki, Richie McCaw, Andrew Hore, Conrad Smith, Brad Thorn, Jimmy Cowan, Piri Weepu, Andy Ellis, Leon MacDonald... to name a few ones, have at least not played one of the two first matches due to injury.

But even if we accept that these players need three spare months during the summer after a long season (last season consisted of 13 Super 14 matches + one or two ANC matches + 15 tests), isn't it alarming the apparent lack of quality backups? Shouldn't the backups be ready to take their chances when the senior players aren't there?

While Laulala, Bowden, Vainikolo and Masaga were keen to take the leading roles in the first round, who took the reins for the Crusaders against the Brumbies? What happened to the Blues in Pretoria?

Is there a lack of depth? Do New Zealand rely on the past or are there talented youngsters coming in? What will happen in round 3?

Bonus question: Why Australia and South Africa seem unaffected by this rare disease that is affecting New Zealand teams during this start of the season?

Super 14 round 2: Predictions

My crystall ball went pretty well last week to foresee what would happen in the Super 14.

Therefore, I am risking it again. Crystal is fragile and it can be broken if I made three or more mistakes ;-)

Hurricanes 38 - Highlanders 32 (I like the idea of Highlanders gathering 2 points again)
Waratahs 30 - Chiefs 25 (You cannot possibly imagine how much I would like to see the other way around)
Western Force 26 - Cheetahs 17 (Let's give Mitchell a chance)
Stormers 30 - Reds 19 (For the sake of the Stormers, they ought to get a bonus point from this one)
Brumbies 19 - Crusaders 24 (Beware if the Brumbies manage to win)
Sharks 14 -Lions 10 (Skeptical about the Sharks or expecting too much of the Lions?)
Bulls 17 - Blues 24 (This is this week's game)

Super 14 week one: review

Highlanders - Brumbies was a good match to see, but a bad game to play. 2 points are not enough for the Highlanders.

Lions - Cheetahs did not show much, really.

Crusaders - Chiefs was another good match to see. The Chiefs are much improved and they can be real contenders this year. The Crusaders were Crusaders-standard.

Western Force - Blues game could deceive you. The Blues have got everything to prove yet, the Force is not a force.

Hurricanes - Waratahs was the same story of last year. Either team lacks just exactly what the other team possesses: either glamour or defense.

Bulls - Reds was a pity. The Reds have got quality.

Stormers - Sharks showed us that the West Province needs something more than just Schalk Burger.

Welcome, ladies and gentlemen to the Super14. Shall we call it the last Super14?

New-look, same mistakes.

It cannot be. It simply cannot be.

When you are in a come-back like the one the Highlanders did against the Brumbies earlier today, you cannot let them slip away with a last-gasp drop-goal.

2 points are not enough for this game. 5 tries are not enough, losing by two is not enough! It's the winning mood the one that must be targeted. Play will come afterwards. It is a matter of realising your chances. The Highlanders may not have many; they should be clinical. Clinical, clinical, clinical.

If they lose after a good play, what will happen when they don't play so well?

Highlanders 31 - Brumbies 33

Super 14 round one: Predictions

Next Friday the Super 14 kicks off. Finally. At last.

We have been waiting. We have even tried to understand the ever highly ilogical results of the pre-season games, hopelessly, of course.

Although I am not half as successful as my old friend Miff is when it comes to look to the crystal ball, I will try to give my predictions each round.

Highlanders 22 - Brumbies 17 (I told you this year the sturdy Otago men were my team)
Lions 28 - Cheetahs 22 (Nah, I don't believe it, either)
Crusaders 24 - Chiefs 21 (Brett is better than Donald, although Leonard is better than Ellis)
Stormers 18 - Sharks 22 (Forget what they say in Newlands, WP did sink at the Currie Cup)
Bulls 34 - Reds 20 (I would very much like to see the scores reverted, but my crystall ball just does not agree)
Hurricanes 17 - Waratahs 15 (That is with Ripia at 10. If Weepu starts at first five, just switch the scores)
Western Force 19 - Blues 28 (Mitchell would be a wonderful coach for ANY franchise, except those NOT based in Christchurch. Mitchell, don't use the Force.)

All eyes suddenly turn to him

After what had to be a glorious game in Paris, he being the man who lifted his side to draw against the almighty Stade de France, Daniel Carter got injured and his season is over.

And all of a sudden, kiwi hearts beat in anxiety. Who's to replace him for the All Blacks?

In Christchurch they don't pronounce his name but in whispers, as no one dares to compare him yet to the great D.C. But he's made of pure gold and now he's more than ever the man to which all eyes have silently turned.

Let me tell you his name in a whisper,

He's Stephen Brett.

A great champion's bitter defeat

After a hard-fought battle, the loss was a bitter end of the tournament for this great champion.

Leinster and Harlequins repeating Nucifora's mistakes

No Blues side has possibly ever been stronger than 2008 Blues. To their already fearsome forward pack, the signing of star first five Nick Evans from the Highlanders drew a very pleasant perspective for their 2008 Super 14 campaing. Evans, alongside with Rokocoko, Nacewa, Tuitavake, Toeava and Wulf formed a promising line-up.

The fact that the Blues did not even reach the last 4 despite an outstanding start with 15 points during their first three games suggests a big question mark over the former Blues head coach David Nucifora.

The quality was undoubtedly there. But apparent lack of form of Toeava first and Nick Evans afterwards, injuries to Evans, Rokocoko and Nacewa and strange tactical decissions like those of switching Nacewa and Evans eventually lead to a bitter 6th position for the Blues.

Possibly the strangest decission that Nucifora took was switching Evans to fullback and Nacewa to first five eighths. What was the point of it? Nacewa spent 2007 playing at first five for the Blues while at the same time he said that his favourite position was wing. 2008 saw him trying at fullback while the number 10 was automatically given to Evans.

Why switch them? Is not Nacewa better fullback than Evans? Is not Evans possibly one of the two best first five in the world?

It amazed me last week during Heineken Cup to see again Nick Evans playing at 15 for the 'Quins while Nacewa wore the Leinster 10 jersey.

People taking care for these two sides, don't you have enough money to sign whoever you want? There is no excuse if you lack a better 10 than Nacewa and there is no possible reason that I can envisage for switching Evans to 15.

Well, not entirely true; there's one, but he's playing for Perpignan this season.

Super 14: Warm up

Super 14 is closer and closer. This is a selection of news related to Super 14.

• Refereeing politics change: The time when a referee for a match was chosen based on the nationality is over. SANZAR will start naming referees based on merit, regardless of the nationality.
• Saracens to play a match against the Stormers (the same weekend, although two days before, Saracens will have played their ECC game against Mont de Marsan in France) at Newlands.
• Warm-up matches for the weekend: Blues - Hurricanes; Chiefs - Highlanders; Stormers - Saracens; Crusaders - Force; Sharks- Cheetahs; Waratahs - Reds.
• Brumbies have just signed rookie Matt Toomua, to fill in the first five position. (So confident were they that Giteau was coming back)

Latest News: Michalak is a halfback

French head coach Marc Lievrèmont has reportedly said:

"For me, Fred is more of a scrumhalf but he currently plays at first five at Toulouse and for me, in that position, he's behind guys like Lionel Beauxis and David Skrela at the moment"

Queer coaching decissions

Harlequins have specialized this season at come-back. Against Leicester, Stade de France and many others, their will and their cool heads have taken them to important scores. It must be said that Nick Evans has often been the executing weapon of a Quins side who never give up.

Against Ulster, things looked pretty much the same when, after trailing 12-0 at halftime, the Harlequins recovered to trail only 16-10 with 10 minutes to go and a very kickable penalty for the english side.

"16-13 and 10 minutes to get possession and have another score" I said to myself.

But then the english coach (Dean Richards) decided he had enough of good results and he wanted to risk everything. Malone in for Evans.

Pardon?????????????????

I mean, Malone has not played a single minute, Evans is your specialist and you are close to it... What's going so wrong to change everything?

Nevermind, Malone kicks to goal and misses. Five minutes later, a kick of his is intercepted and Ulster Scores. Game over. 21-10.

It will not be published anywhere, as Stade de France has lost today and the Harlequins are already classified, having a 6-point advantage with one game to go.

Justin Marshall signs for the Saracens

It seems his fight with Montpellier is over and he's been released to sign for the english club. Justin Marshall will be then, if my reckoning isn't wrong, the first kiwi to have played in all four top european competitions: Magners, Top 14, Guinness and Heineken Cup.

Not a bad feat for a player who has consistently been an outstanding performer at his position for over a decade.

But clearly, Marshall's situation at the french club and his change to Saracens does mean something's not going right for him.

What is it?

Maybe 12 years at the highest level are too much.

Maybe... could it be time for Justin Marshall to start thinking about putting an end to his career?