New format for NPC: can it fool anyone?

Now, it seems the Air New Zealand Cup is going to have Canterbury, Wellington, Waikato, Hawkes Bay, Auckland, Otago and Southland in the "Premiership" and Manawatu, Counties Manukau, Tasman, North Harbour, Taranaki, Bay of Plenty and Northland in the "Championship".

Questions:

Who's going to win the championship?
Who's going to have the Log'o Wood?
Who's going to have the crowds?
Who's going to be cut down when the money runs out?


Yeah, sure, keep thinking the NPC is still a 14-team competition.

Do not expect much of the first test

Twins New Zealand and Australia start their first tests of the season.

For Australia, it should not be much different than the Barbarians, except for the never-ending high expectations put on the Italian forwards. They are physical, they say. True, but physicality ain't everything in forwards play. There's more to it. So, expect a tough physical match for the aussies, but a comfortable win.

For New Zealand, things are pretty much the same. Concerns are everywhere in this ever-scared-of-losing country but the truth is that the side that Henry fields does not lack class, does not lack power, and more importantly, does not lack form. Which Les Blues happen to lack. What is more, they cannot fiedl their best 15. So, don't be afraid, the beloved All Blacks shall win.

These games will only give some ground to the newbies (less trialed players) in both squads: O'Connor, Brown, Turner for the Wallabies; Ross, Messam, Read, Wulf for the All Blacks.

And that's all.

Blues are out of it. It could be a tough day for New Zealand franchises.

The Reds totally outsmarted the Blues and the Auckland franchise is out of the playoffs contention.

It is alarming the ease with which the Reds dismantled Blues display. It should make the Blues coach think.

By the way, today could be a terrible day for the New Zealand franchises. At this very moment, the Blues are down 5-31 in Albany while the Brumbies have just scored a try in Wellington.

Good luck, 'canes.

Best goal kicker?

Who's the best goal kicker in the NZRU?

Daniel Carter? Stephen Donald? Jimmy Gopperth?

Well, you would be wrong. The golden boot, the man-who-nearly-never-misses has not played a single game of rugby... union.

Yes, Michael Witt, former and I do mean former rugby league player for the Auckland Warriors has just switched codes and will be playing for Otago at the Air New Zealand Cup. He had a wonderful 2008 NRL season, kicking over 90%.

Could he make attendances boost in Dunedin? Can he lift Otago to a decent campaing this year? Will he be playing for the Highlanders next year?

With Daniel Bowden heading to Auckland next year, there's a gap that could be perfect for Witt; the aussie-born has already expressed his desire to perform the haka at test level.

Questions: What's going on?

I'm totally shocked.

Super 14 rounds 1 and 2 are gone and New Zealand franchises are really struggling to get results while things certainly seem so easy for Sharks, Bulls and Waratahs. The best three New Zealand sides have the same amount of wins than both the Force and the Lions have while the worst are at the Reds and Cheetahs level.

So, what's going on?

Graham Henry may complain about injuries to the leading senior players: Ali Williams, Mils Muliaina, Sione Lauaki, Richie McCaw, Andrew Hore, Conrad Smith, Brad Thorn, Jimmy Cowan, Piri Weepu, Andy Ellis, Leon MacDonald... to name a few ones, have at least not played one of the two first matches due to injury.

But even if we accept that these players need three spare months during the summer after a long season (last season consisted of 13 Super 14 matches + one or two ANC matches + 15 tests), isn't it alarming the apparent lack of quality backups? Shouldn't the backups be ready to take their chances when the senior players aren't there?

While Laulala, Bowden, Vainikolo and Masaga were keen to take the leading roles in the first round, who took the reins for the Crusaders against the Brumbies? What happened to the Blues in Pretoria?

Is there a lack of depth? Do New Zealand rely on the past or are there talented youngsters coming in? What will happen in round 3?

Bonus question: Why Australia and South Africa seem unaffected by this rare disease that is affecting New Zealand teams during this start of the season?

All Blacks only lose, they never win

Happy new year to you all.

Now that I have finally filled in a facebook profile, I've it clear: I prefer losing my time here, writing stupid things about rugby, as I always do, than writing stupid things anywhere else.

And to kick 2009 off in fashion, my first thought; about the All Blacks, of course, what else?

Outside New Zealand, the history of the All Blacks is built upon a hundred years long list of defeats.

Indeed.

Have any doubts about it?

Let me remind you which memorable AB's games you have in mind.

1905. Wales defeated the All Blacks 3-0 in their first match-up in what eventually came up to be the only defeat of the "Originals" tour (34 wins and a single loss)

1936. Obolensky scored two tries in the first defeat of the All Blacks against England 13-0.

1973. Barbarians - All Blacks. The game that any POM (and POM-lovers) recall as the best game of rugby ever played.

1978. Munster defeat the All Blacks 12-0. The only reason for irish (any irish) to still play rugby, according to many, Monsieur Rugbycan included.

2007. France 20 - All Blacks 18. Choke. Choke. Choke. Choke. Choker.

*Sigh*

If you happen to be a southerner, or by any chance you know anything about real rugby, sorry, I mean southern-hemisphere rugby, your ideas about the All Blacks might well be truly different. You will surely remember 2000's thrilling end of the Tri-Nations tournament, when a tank disguised of left wing called Jonah Lomu scored the decissive try in injury time to give the All Blacks the game against the Wallabies, the BC and the 3N. Or you might recall Gregan's tackle on Jeff Wilson or maybe his famous "4 more years, boys" or perhaps the last-gasp try at the House of Pain last June that gave the Springboks their first win in New Zealand (first ever at Carisbrook, Dunedin) in 5 years. But then, you will agree with me, we are a minority.

For the rest of the world, the history of the All Blacks is built upon defeats, much like those of chessplayer Jose Raúl Capablanca or tennis player Roger Federer, individuals whose victories were deemed normal and whose defeats were always first-page news.

My 2009 super 14 franchise

So sorry, but I couldn't stand watching yesterday games at the HC. I tried to watch the Stade Français vs Harlequins and it was boring. But afterwards I made a major mistake in the Leicester Tigers vs Perpignan. Horrible.

Therefore I turn back again my face to southern rugby and I am chosing my franchise for the 2009 Super 14.

Last year I picked both Hurricanes and Blues. The Hurricanes did well, but the Blues were simply too irregular after a bludgeoning start and despite a wonderful last rounds.

This year, I am switching totally my allegiance. I will, as usual, cheer all kiwi sides, but my priorities will be on the southernmost side of the country. This season I will follow the Highlanders.

I feel that, given the current status of New Zealand rugby, the great improvers of this 2009 will be the Highlanders and that's why I want to be the first to say: I already foresaw it!!!!

So, go Highlanders!!!!!!!!!!!

Air New Zealand Cup (NPC)

The Air New Zealand Cup pre-season matches start tomorrow, and by the time the season officially starts we'll already know who's able to win the 3N and who is not. What is certain is that there are a number of provinces who can consider themselves "cheated". What would you think if you were an Auckland supporter and realise that you will not get Evans or Nacewa to play for your team? I mean, they are not selected for the Internationals. Players playing for the All Blacks won't play the NPC and Canterbury fans well do know it but, what happens with people like the former two?

Let's forget those fair or unfair issues as the NPC is interesting in itself (same as the Currie Cup is). This year the team to beat should be Auckland as well. Despite losing Nacewa and not lining up Evans, and despite Hawke's Bay feeling confident with some Super 14 efforts by certain players like Latimer. The question is, who shall be fighting with the Aucklanders? What will Canterbury show? Can Wellington pose a threat to the reigning champions? Will this be the year of Waikato?

As usual, I have to choose my favourites and I don't really know where to start. I must support Auckland, if you forgive me, for I very much want Taniela Moa and Lachie Munro to play strong and be selected as Super 14 regular starters (by the man who will replace Nucifora who's no other than Pat Lam). I must also support Bay of Plenty and Waikato but, as happens to me with Blues and Hurricanes in the Super 14, don't ask me exactly why.


Let's see what the NPC unfolds and let's also wait for which All Blacks are released after the 3N. Some of them, like Mealamu, do always love playing big for their provincial teams.

Why Robbie Deans is an excellent coach

I don't know if he is the best. I know, however, that I like him better than all the Meyer, Henry, Kidney, de Villiers, White, Gatland and other species that roam the world coaching here and there.

Why?


Well, forget for a moment all the Crusaders titles, right? Forget about the Super 14 and his successes. Pay attention only to his manners.

• When it was public that the All Blacks coach position was open for applicants, he looked at him and said: "I think I am ready for the next stage". He was New Zealand's people favourite but the only thing he cared about was whether he was ready or not. It is not easy to have things clear and be honest when anything in New Zealand relating to rugby has so many attention drawn.


• He is a leader and as such, cares for his people and is responsible for them. Mistakes and successes are shared and belong not to the individual. When the Crusaders fell to the Highlanders in the last rounds of the Super 14 2008, he did not blame at any player, but spread the guilt amongst all, he being the first. As a leader, what impresses me most is the freedom that he gives to his players. After her first game as wallaby coach, against Ireland, what he did was praising his players for trying new things. He said he meant them to try these things. Imagine the difference between a coach that says: "I never ever want you to do this" and another one that says "Well done, we must try new things. This time it did not work but, do you think it could work next time if ...?" The difference between making someone feel valuable and making someone feel he does things wrong.


• He is often looking to collaborate with others. I will never forget the offer he sent to all the Super 14 coaches coaching Australian sides to share their impressions about the players they were coaching. Only Laurie Fisher did not want to cooperate and it made it impossible. I imagine him being the first to give the All Blacks coaching staff his views on the Crusaders players, if needed.
  
• An important detail: He teaches, he cares. Look at him technically helping Luke Burgess, look at him telling Dan Carter to do with his future what he (Dan Carter) thinks is best.
  
• He knows what his people need. Just take a look at the wallaby camp; they are the side with more changes after RWC'07. And the season has been designed to let them grow as a group first (with a clever first test and two weeks time after it to build from it) and as a team afterwards. Just what is good for Australia.
  
• He does what he thinks is right. As when he raised Dan Carter to the vice-captaincy of the Crusaders or when he took Brett out of the semifinal against the Hurricanes to include Bateman.
  

And now, get back the memories of him riding the horses of the Crusaders to their titles and see how proud their players were of their coach the last day they were together on a field. Compare it to the Waratahs coach Mckenzie, who was sidelined by his skipper Vaugh when he spoke after the Super 14 final game.

I like Robbie Deans as coach and I think he will produce an outstanding performance for the wallabies. My question is, have Australia enough material for Deans?

Weekend Review

The All Blacks romped England 44 - 12.
McCaw has a serious injury that will rule him out of most of the Tri-Nations.
South Africa looked not very bright in their 26-0 defeat of Italy.
Australia A scored 90 points against a weak Tonga side (they were beaten last week by Japan, too).
New Zealand are playing against England in the final IRB Junior World Championship, the score being 3-0. Mind you, 8-0.

Tri Nations preview

The Super 14 is over. Internationals are on course and they show they good old-fashioned gap between north and south. What about the Tri Nations? How are the teams performing? How will they fare through July and August games?


Let's take a look at them:

All Blacks: No one will doubt of the inmense quality in the kiwi pool of players. In normal conditions, the All Blacks would be clear favourites to win the tournament. But there are two issues that have been threatening New Zealand's national squad ever since RWC failure: Players exodus and Graham Henry. Exodus towards the wealthy north has affected many an All Black: Hayman, Howlett, McAlister, Kelleher, Mauger, Gear, Jack... and recently Nick Evans and Jerry Collins have also quitted. On the other hand, the controversy around Graham Henry has issued many a trouble to the NZRU and, it was feared, even amongst the very players. To make things worse, New Zealand's favourite son Robbie Deans has coached the Crusaders without a trace of irony or polemics to their seventh title and it has been with great sorrow that the kiwis have seen him cross the Tasman.
The two international games played have somewhat diminished the pressure on the All Blacks. Good victories over Ireland and England have answered many a question and, more importantly, may have shown the solution to a problem that the All Blacks are carrying since back in 2005: the mid-field. Ma'a Nonu and Conrad Smith may be the answer and this more than anything lifts the spirit in the All Black camp. So the Tri Nations is awaited with anxiety and excitedness in the land of the long white cloud.

Wallabies: The Wallaby side may have a great advantage over their rivals. It is the only one side which could register a bad result, even coming last at the Tri Nations and still, be confident about the future. That is the credit of Robbie Deans, a luxury that not many a coach nowadays can benefit of. The key to Deans and the Wallabies is that theirs is a long-term partnership and no just a one-year deal. Being said that, I am sure it is not in their plans to get such result and, given the quality of the Aussie squad, they are actually title contenders in everyone's mind, which may be a difference to any of the other two teams (if you are amazed of me implicitly saying that the All Blacks are not clear favourites for everyone, go and see Zinzan Brooke's opinion). But Australia is more, far more than a selection of the best aussie players. They have got Deans. And to help you make a whole picture about how important that change may be, let me just quote him a few days ago. All in all, it makes me wanna write a post over Deans, I think he deserves it.
Coming back to the team, it is a big oportunity for many a player. In a time of change, without names like Larkham, Gregan and Latham for the first time in a decade, it is a chance for the Giteaus, Tuqiris and other species to rise to the top, with Mortlock the only link between past and present. The future is in the name of the Shifcofskes. However, the weak point of the Australians could be again the scrum. It is something that has hurt in the past (remember the RWC quarterfinal) and, with the ELVs in play, New Zealand and South Africa could take a fair advantage over the aussies. It is going to be interesting how Deans manages this one.

Springboks: It is amazing how the World Cup champions and by far the less changed side from last year is apparently also the weakest of the three. It does not give much credit to the Rugby World Cup certainly (but of course I am an All Black supporter, maybe I am a bit biased against a tournament so ellusive to us), but it does put a lot of pressure over Peter de Villiers. Perhaps the hardest time of the three head coaches is that of Peter de Villiers. Henry has half of the country against him, Deans must start over again but has the whole country behind him, but de Villiers can't afford a single mistake or he will be ferociously devoured by the roaring public opinion. If he succeeds, however, he could change the future of the country. And I don't mean rugby (here I am just quoting Monsieur Rugbycan). The problem is, they don't look like succeeding. Northern exposure to Matfield, Montgomery and co seem to have somewhat softened them or perhaps they have never been really that good. It is a pity that they won't face Ireland next week but Italy instead, as the celts have become a touchstone for the southerners this season after playing exceptionally weel both against New Zealand and Australia. A good win against Ireland would suit them well, but a scrappy win against them would simply put to much question marks over the Springboks. Unlike the All Blacks and the Wallabies, the Springboks are in our minds as a much more finished product, whereas the other two have a long way before the peak. After scrum struggles against the Welsh in the first game, things went worse in the second, being the whole team who struggled to get a win in the final minutes. At http://www.keo.co.za/ the scrum was not thought to be a problem and they were confident that it would only get better but, to quote Monsieur Rugbycan again: "What makes you think you are so f...... good at scrummaging?"

All in all, I am quite confident the All Blacks will win. I want to see, however, how this Wallaby side is handled by Deans as, I think, does the whole rugby world.

NZ win Sevens Series

They were unable to get the title in London, as they lost their quarter final game against England by 12 - 17 but they did win the remaining three games to get the Plate including the final Plate game against South Africa and sealed the Sevens series with only the Scotland fixture to go.

A number of surprises have occurred, such as Portugal emerging as a Sevens power, even defeating an Australian side full of Super 14 players (!!!) and performing well enough to lose 28 - 14 against New Zealand. Or both South Africa and New Zealand losing in the quarter finals...

Samoa went on to defeat Fiji in the final and got their first leg this year. Congratulations to the winners!

And congratulations to the Sevens Series winners!

New Zealand: 100 years coming to an end

Whoever doubts that New Zealand has been the dominant power in the world of rugby for the last 100 years, either he believes rugby is played with 13 men or is a Springbok.

In fact, only the strongest South Africa has been able to stop the All Black machine of rugby, being the Springboks/All Blacks tours the most intense that this game has witnessed.

Please, do forget the Northern Hemisphere.

But it happens everywhere. Ford was the everything in the world of automakers until the decade of the thirties, where so many changes in the industry saw a new giant best prepared to become the world leader (no other than GM, who, 70 years later, was also banquished when it was not strong enough to compete). Take Microsoft, the world leader was innovative but at the end died of success when a new kid on the block, Google, was healthier and ready to face the changes the industry needed.

Now come back to New Zealand. New Zealand have got the strongest rugby culture in the world. Their love for rugby is immense, and their have been the world power while rugby has been an amatheur issue, and also during the first and a half decade of professionalism, when the NZRU has been able to retain kiwi players at home.

The idea was that rugby in New Zealand was a home issue, and the best players of this secret world were shown abroad during tests and no one could match them.

Now players are not playing at home anymore: McAlister, Howlett, Jack, Hayman, Mauger, Rush, Marshall, Gear, Kelleher... are already gone. Evans, Flavell, Nacewa will. Collins, Carter, Tu'uiali most likely.


And NZRU cannot keep them at home any longer. Rugby has changed. Definately and forever. Provincial championships will no longer sustain the game. Privatised franchises will have to arise and the game become a business like business is football or basketball. Who shall rule then? When the Internet appeared, no one was greater than Microsoft and, even so, they fell to Google. Why? Because they were not flexible enough to adapt. With size often comes resilience to change. And the surname of adaptation is change.

Will New Zealand be adaptable enough to face the changes after 100 years of being the best?

NZ Rugby future debated at Wellington

Provincial unions, super franchises, NZRU bosses... they will all debate the future of rugby in NZ for two days starting tomorrow (I mean, in a few hours).

To make it clear: The problem is money.

Audiences matter less. Provincial unions problems matter less. Even top players heading toward England and France can be substitued...

But the solution to every problem above (including audiences and attendances, of course) is money. That means it is a somewhat closed-loop situation.

Some say privatising super franchises would do. I doubt it would be enough. But anyway the future is in private hands, I fear.

4 matches for the Bledisloe

It's the news of the day: A fourth game will be played in Hong Kong between New Zealand and Australia. This means that Deans' side will require 3 wins to get the Bledisloe Cup back and that the All Blacks will need just two wins.

Fair play would require an odd number of games in order to win the cup, as it is easier to win 2 of 3 for the side who lost last year than winning 3 of 4.

Warren Gatland speaks: "Kiwis are arrogant"

In a rare display of self-criticism Warren Gatland has stated that Kiwis are rarely aware of anything outside their borders and wrongly consider themselves as a world reference.

Is Watland right? I think most will agree (nonetheless Monsieur Rugbycan, I'm sure)

Is he wrong? Many new zealanders won't like Gatland's words. Is he regretful that he has not been given a super franchise coaching position?

But most important of all: Will he take Wales to the 6N title?

ELVs: My word, I finally know

Up to now, I have been quite reluctant about making any fast decission on the ELVs. I, like Deans, have always asked for more time for the teams to adjust and learn the best way to play under the new rules.

Now, I don't wait anymore. I know.

It is curious how it's not been any Super 14 game which has made my mind. It's been watching the 2005 Tri Nations game in Cape Town between the All Blacks and the Springboks. The Springboks managed to win 22-16 and the crowd sang so loud during the haka that it can't be overheard. But what has impressed me the most is to see how damn good are the africans when defending. Late and high tackles apart, it amazes me how they manage to constantly put pressure on the attacking side, how damn close they are to the attackers. You reckon how physical that game turns out to be. In that game, the All Black scrum was simply demolished by the Springboks. It is an All Black supporter who says so.

Now look at the ELVs. Look at the free space they create and the extra fitness they require. Look at how the Springboks defense relaxes as the 80 minutes go on. Look at the Habanas and du Preez's words on the ELVs.

South Africans are the masters of the defense. No one does it better. Force them to leave free space, force them to leave the attackers some momentum (you know, p = m·v) and see how they struggle. See how the South African franchises are struggling with these ELVs.

New Zealand franchises: 6 wins out of 10 matches
Australian franchises: 4 wins out of 8 matches
South African franchises: 4 wins out of 10 matches

So, don't you see a reason for aussies and kiwis to support these ELVs? Don't you see a reason for Habana and the others dislike the ELVs?

I do. If the ELVs are finally adopted worldwide, the task for the Springboks to adapt is going to be huge. I finally know.

Changes to the RWC seeding

Well, it seems that the meeting in New Zealand between the IRB, the NZRU, and the 2007 RWC organisers has made some progress.

Apparently, the most important thing about it all is the seedings, and it seems RWC 2011 will change them to ease the pool stage for the All Blacks. Instead of a seeding based on last RWC performance, the IRB rankings shall probably be used.

How nice. People not only will be able to say that the All Blacks only win the Webb Ellis Trophy if played at home, but also that the laws are changed to make things easier. As usual, some media in NZ are keen to remind us who is to be blamed after all.

According to the seeding method used for the last 20 years, top seeds would be SA, ENG, FRA and ARG. A terrible thing that NZ and Australia wouldn't become top seeds. A pool featuring South Africa, New Zealand and Wales could be, then, perfectly possible. I wonder what is wrong with it: the four 2007 World Cup semifinalists came from the arguably two toughest pools.

But let pride of being the top seed blind us all, let's make things change so the All Blacks are safe to pass through the pool as if it were a training and not real competition. Let the IRB rankings have the last word.

Just to make things clear; I am not against changing the way the seeding is done, I am just complaining at the moment we are doing it. Not at our RWC and not while we can be blamed of easing things for us.

Not this way.

New Zealand Sevens II: The pearl

This is the pearl that was unfolded last weekend in Wellington.

Which Super 14 side should I support?

Ok, the Super 14 is about to start. In two weeks time the ball shall be kicked and everyone shall be supporting his/her side.

If you just have slightly got the idea of this blog, you won't need me to tell you that I only consider New Zealand sides, but anyway, which New Zealand side should I pick?

This is a very appealing side to me. I like Nick Evans and Joe Rocokoco and I think that Isa Nacewa is going to play a fundamental role for New Zealand in years to come. Besides 2007 Air New Zealand Cup showed how strong Auckland's youngsters are. Thus, they combine players I like and a lot of potential.

Well, the Chiefs would certainly be a good option: they have Stephen Donald, Leonard,... but I think I just could never back someone called "Chief". Should they change their name to "Thiefs" it would be all funnier and I would probably change my mind. History says that the Maori Kingdom created around 1880 was founded in this region and thus the name and symbol of the Chiefs are a maori chief. It's wonderful but... Why did they choose a pakeha word for the team? Interestingly, maori had no word for "King" before the arrival of the europeans, and the movement to appoint a maori chief was called "Kingitanga".

I can't choose the Crusaders. I just cannot. I like the players (Carter, McCaw, Williams, McDonald...) I like the coach... but they are just too successful for me. I could not support the L.A. Lakers nor Roger Federer, so I think I won't be backing the Crusaders.

This is a very interesting option. They have got probably the most capped pack (together with the Crusaders) and their skipper is a player I couldn't like more: Rodney So'oialo. Besides, the great Umaga played for the Hurricanes.

These would have been my last year's choice. In a place whose name reminds me of my favourite book, Nick Evans played for th Highlanders until last season. They used to be a very strong franchise but have somewhat struggled for the last 4 or 5 years... And the future does not look very appealing...

So, Blues, Highlanders or Hurricanes? I think I'm going to support Hurricanes and Blues and perhaps will flip a coin to see who I back on week 14, May the 16th.

This is my choice: What is yours?

BTW: According to the ngata online dictionary, the word in maori for chief is "rangatira"