Deans' end

Last post was about Richie McCaw and how close could he be to the end of his rugby career.

This one is about Robbie Deans' end as Wallabies coach.

Facts:

1. In 2009, the Wallabies have played 13 tests, with 5 wins, 7 losses and one draw.
2. In 2008-2009, the Wallabies have played 27 tests, with 14 wins, 12 losses and one draw.
3. Eddie Jones was sacked in 2001 with a better success rate.
4. Deans' continuity has been a subject addressed by up to 5 different sources, including ARU boss John O'Neill in the 24 hours following the Scottish hiding.
5. This season the relation between the ARU and Australian players has been patchy at its best, and clearly Robbie Deans has been supporting the ARU. Issues have arised with Giteau, Tuqiri, and bold coaching decissions like those involving Smith, Mortlock, the captaincy and vice-captaincy have certainly not helped.
6. Australia should have never lost to Scotland.

Robbie Deans is a good coach. He is an outstanding coach, in fact. But this Wallabies team apparently has got a lot of internal issues that he has not yet managed to fix. I wonder if anyone is capable to fix them.

I don't know if the ARU should keep him or sack him, what I do know is that winning is the best way to solve them, and solving them is the best way to winning.

And Robbie Deans has not managed to do any of those things.

Robbie Deans' credit is over

Just look here.

Robbie Deans may or may not be guilty of the poor 2009 performances by the Wallabies, but he's run out of credit.

Now the Wallabies must deliver or his time as Australia's Head Coach shall be over.

At the other shore of the Tasman Sea, Henry's head stands firmly, as we all know nothing is going to remove "Ted" from his position until 2011. But then, NZ hopes may be fading, after a three consecutive losses to SA and another loss to France.

Rugby is nowadays a 4-year sport and we are right in the middle of this 4-year race with the All Blacks losing ground to first-placed Springboks and the Wallabies asking themselves if they have what it gets to go the full distance.

Do not expect much of the first test

Twins New Zealand and Australia start their first tests of the season.

For Australia, it should not be much different than the Barbarians, except for the never-ending high expectations put on the Italian forwards. They are physical, they say. True, but physicality ain't everything in forwards play. There's more to it. So, expect a tough physical match for the aussies, but a comfortable win.

For New Zealand, things are pretty much the same. Concerns are everywhere in this ever-scared-of-losing country but the truth is that the side that Henry fields does not lack class, does not lack power, and more importantly, does not lack form. Which Les Blues happen to lack. What is more, they cannot fiedl their best 15. So, don't be afraid, the beloved All Blacks shall win.

These games will only give some ground to the newbies (less trialed players) in both squads: O'Connor, Brown, Turner for the Wallabies; Ross, Messam, Read, Wulf for the All Blacks.

And that's all.

Aussies impressed me!!!!

Both Waratahs and Brumbies have been on the very razor's edge for the past three weeks. I did expect and in fact I did predict both teams to be out by now but the real truth is that they are still in the hunt for the playoffs.

With the semifinals cut-off at 41 points (or perhaps 42), both teams need a bonus point victory to have any chance to get through it, but they are capable of doing it.

Specially difficult is the task for the Brumbies, as no team has bonus-pointed a win in Hamilton this season, and the Chiefs are looking really powerful. But the Waratahs could very well get a win, and even a bonus point victory, after their unexpected feat of beating the Sharks at home.

I now think that Bulls, Chiefs, Hurricanes and Crusaders will get classified, but the aussies are still there, which is amazing... Amazing.

How do you like this team?

Montgomery, Ndungane, Fourie, Olivier, Habana, van der Westhuyzen, Januarie, du Randt, Smit, van der Linde, Matfield, Rossouw, van Niekerk, Smith, Spies.

Would you have betted on a 49-0 loss to Australia?

Why Robbie Deans is an excellent coach

I don't know if he is the best. I know, however, that I like him better than all the Meyer, Henry, Kidney, de Villiers, White, Gatland and other species that roam the world coaching here and there.

Why?


Well, forget for a moment all the Crusaders titles, right? Forget about the Super 14 and his successes. Pay attention only to his manners.

• When it was public that the All Blacks coach position was open for applicants, he looked at him and said: "I think I am ready for the next stage". He was New Zealand's people favourite but the only thing he cared about was whether he was ready or not. It is not easy to have things clear and be honest when anything in New Zealand relating to rugby has so many attention drawn.


• He is a leader and as such, cares for his people and is responsible for them. Mistakes and successes are shared and belong not to the individual. When the Crusaders fell to the Highlanders in the last rounds of the Super 14 2008, he did not blame at any player, but spread the guilt amongst all, he being the first. As a leader, what impresses me most is the freedom that he gives to his players. After her first game as wallaby coach, against Ireland, what he did was praising his players for trying new things. He said he meant them to try these things. Imagine the difference between a coach that says: "I never ever want you to do this" and another one that says "Well done, we must try new things. This time it did not work but, do you think it could work next time if ...?" The difference between making someone feel valuable and making someone feel he does things wrong.


• He is often looking to collaborate with others. I will never forget the offer he sent to all the Super 14 coaches coaching Australian sides to share their impressions about the players they were coaching. Only Laurie Fisher did not want to cooperate and it made it impossible. I imagine him being the first to give the All Blacks coaching staff his views on the Crusaders players, if needed.
  
• An important detail: He teaches, he cares. Look at him technically helping Luke Burgess, look at him telling Dan Carter to do with his future what he (Dan Carter) thinks is best.
  
• He knows what his people need. Just take a look at the wallaby camp; they are the side with more changes after RWC'07. And the season has been designed to let them grow as a group first (with a clever first test and two weeks time after it to build from it) and as a team afterwards. Just what is good for Australia.
  
• He does what he thinks is right. As when he raised Dan Carter to the vice-captaincy of the Crusaders or when he took Brett out of the semifinal against the Hurricanes to include Bateman.
  

And now, get back the memories of him riding the horses of the Crusaders to their titles and see how proud their players were of their coach the last day they were together on a field. Compare it to the Waratahs coach Mckenzie, who was sidelined by his skipper Vaugh when he spoke after the Super 14 final game.

I like Robbie Deans as coach and I think he will produce an outstanding performance for the wallabies. My question is, have Australia enough material for Deans?

Tri Nations preview

The Super 14 is over. Internationals are on course and they show they good old-fashioned gap between north and south. What about the Tri Nations? How are the teams performing? How will they fare through July and August games?


Let's take a look at them:

All Blacks: No one will doubt of the inmense quality in the kiwi pool of players. In normal conditions, the All Blacks would be clear favourites to win the tournament. But there are two issues that have been threatening New Zealand's national squad ever since RWC failure: Players exodus and Graham Henry. Exodus towards the wealthy north has affected many an All Black: Hayman, Howlett, McAlister, Kelleher, Mauger, Gear, Jack... and recently Nick Evans and Jerry Collins have also quitted. On the other hand, the controversy around Graham Henry has issued many a trouble to the NZRU and, it was feared, even amongst the very players. To make things worse, New Zealand's favourite son Robbie Deans has coached the Crusaders without a trace of irony or polemics to their seventh title and it has been with great sorrow that the kiwis have seen him cross the Tasman.
The two international games played have somewhat diminished the pressure on the All Blacks. Good victories over Ireland and England have answered many a question and, more importantly, may have shown the solution to a problem that the All Blacks are carrying since back in 2005: the mid-field. Ma'a Nonu and Conrad Smith may be the answer and this more than anything lifts the spirit in the All Black camp. So the Tri Nations is awaited with anxiety and excitedness in the land of the long white cloud.

Wallabies: The Wallaby side may have a great advantage over their rivals. It is the only one side which could register a bad result, even coming last at the Tri Nations and still, be confident about the future. That is the credit of Robbie Deans, a luxury that not many a coach nowadays can benefit of. The key to Deans and the Wallabies is that theirs is a long-term partnership and no just a one-year deal. Being said that, I am sure it is not in their plans to get such result and, given the quality of the Aussie squad, they are actually title contenders in everyone's mind, which may be a difference to any of the other two teams (if you are amazed of me implicitly saying that the All Blacks are not clear favourites for everyone, go and see Zinzan Brooke's opinion). But Australia is more, far more than a selection of the best aussie players. They have got Deans. And to help you make a whole picture about how important that change may be, let me just quote him a few days ago. All in all, it makes me wanna write a post over Deans, I think he deserves it.
Coming back to the team, it is a big oportunity for many a player. In a time of change, without names like Larkham, Gregan and Latham for the first time in a decade, it is a chance for the Giteaus, Tuqiris and other species to rise to the top, with Mortlock the only link between past and present. The future is in the name of the Shifcofskes. However, the weak point of the Australians could be again the scrum. It is something that has hurt in the past (remember the RWC quarterfinal) and, with the ELVs in play, New Zealand and South Africa could take a fair advantage over the aussies. It is going to be interesting how Deans manages this one.

Springboks: It is amazing how the World Cup champions and by far the less changed side from last year is apparently also the weakest of the three. It does not give much credit to the Rugby World Cup certainly (but of course I am an All Black supporter, maybe I am a bit biased against a tournament so ellusive to us), but it does put a lot of pressure over Peter de Villiers. Perhaps the hardest time of the three head coaches is that of Peter de Villiers. Henry has half of the country against him, Deans must start over again but has the whole country behind him, but de Villiers can't afford a single mistake or he will be ferociously devoured by the roaring public opinion. If he succeeds, however, he could change the future of the country. And I don't mean rugby (here I am just quoting Monsieur Rugbycan). The problem is, they don't look like succeeding. Northern exposure to Matfield, Montgomery and co seem to have somewhat softened them or perhaps they have never been really that good. It is a pity that they won't face Ireland next week but Italy instead, as the celts have become a touchstone for the southerners this season after playing exceptionally weel both against New Zealand and Australia. A good win against Ireland would suit them well, but a scrappy win against them would simply put to much question marks over the Springboks. Unlike the All Blacks and the Wallabies, the Springboks are in our minds as a much more finished product, whereas the other two have a long way before the peak. After scrum struggles against the Welsh in the first game, things went worse in the second, being the whole team who struggled to get a win in the final minutes. At http://www.keo.co.za/ the scrum was not thought to be a problem and they were confident that it would only get better but, to quote Monsieur Rugbycan again: "What makes you think you are so f...... good at scrummaging?"

All in all, I am quite confident the All Blacks will win. I want to see, however, how this Wallaby side is handled by Deans as, I think, does the whole rugby world.

quote of the day

«What I did like was the preparedness of the guys to play, even the wide kick such as Berrick's. That's great. If we're not prepared to give things a go we won't succeed. You just cannot play conservatively at Test level and hope to achieve what we want to achieve.»

Robbie Deans

"Stu who?"

It is a famous story that the first time that a young David Campese heard about legendary All Black Stu Wilson, the wallaby answer was: "Stu who"?

What follows is Stuart Wilson's views on one of the all-time best rugby players in the world. It is a tale of old, as you will see.

«Well, David Campese hit New Zealand, his first tour over here. We’d heard about this brash, upstart little prick from Sydney – you know, he was running around, goose-stepping, and saying he’d do this and do that. We saw him during the provincial games. He was good – without a doubt the most exciting talent we’d seen for years – and I’m saying, ‘He’s on my wing, I have to mark him.’ So I said to the big gorillas, ‘Look boys, I catch him, we get him in the ruck, you do it to him: we’ll give him the good, old fashioned New Zealand welcome, all right? I want size-fifteen boots right over the top of him.’ They said, ‘Can you catch him?’ I said, ‘I’ll try.’ Well, for three Tests I tried but couldn’t catch him. We had the boys sharpening their sprigs. They said, ‘Stuey, this time we’ll get him.’ I even brought Bernie Fraser over from the other wing and gave him 10 minutes. I said, ‘Bernie, you come have a crack at him. I can’t catch him – he’s too quick.’ He had the goose-step, he had the chip and chase, he had the typical cockiness of all Australian backs. But we just couldn’t get near him – he was that good. He knew that we were after him, and he knew that if he’d got into the Doctor Death House, as we used to call the rucks, than Doctor Death would deliver. So he would always scoot around. When he got into the heavy weather, he’d make sure that he’d scramble out of the rucks before our boys could get to him. A good player, damn him. He made life hell for me for three tests.»

4 matches for the Bledisloe

It's the news of the day: A fourth game will be played in Hong Kong between New Zealand and Australia. This means that Deans' side will require 3 wins to get the Bledisloe Cup back and that the All Blacks will need just two wins.

Fair play would require an odd number of games in order to win the cup, as it is easier to win 2 of 3 for the side who lost last year than winning 3 of 4.

ELVs: My word, I finally know

Up to now, I have been quite reluctant about making any fast decission on the ELVs. I, like Deans, have always asked for more time for the teams to adjust and learn the best way to play under the new rules.

Now, I don't wait anymore. I know.

It is curious how it's not been any Super 14 game which has made my mind. It's been watching the 2005 Tri Nations game in Cape Town between the All Blacks and the Springboks. The Springboks managed to win 22-16 and the crowd sang so loud during the haka that it can't be overheard. But what has impressed me the most is to see how damn good are the africans when defending. Late and high tackles apart, it amazes me how they manage to constantly put pressure on the attacking side, how damn close they are to the attackers. You reckon how physical that game turns out to be. In that game, the All Black scrum was simply demolished by the Springboks. It is an All Black supporter who says so.

Now look at the ELVs. Look at the free space they create and the extra fitness they require. Look at how the Springboks defense relaxes as the 80 minutes go on. Look at the Habanas and du Preez's words on the ELVs.

South Africans are the masters of the defense. No one does it better. Force them to leave free space, force them to leave the attackers some momentum (you know, p = m·v) and see how they struggle. See how the South African franchises are struggling with these ELVs.

New Zealand franchises: 6 wins out of 10 matches
Australian franchises: 4 wins out of 8 matches
South African franchises: 4 wins out of 10 matches

So, don't you see a reason for aussies and kiwis to support these ELVs? Don't you see a reason for Habana and the others dislike the ELVs?

I do. If the ELVs are finally adopted worldwide, the task for the Springboks to adapt is going to be huge. I finally know.

Over AU$ 1 Million for Stirling Mortlock

Could you refuse AU$ 1 million per year if you were offered?

Surprisingly (to me), not everyone named Mortlock as the best possible 13 in RugbyForum's poll. It is not me the one who's going to put Mortlock's name ahead of Umaga's but this is only the humble opinion of an All Black supporter.

An unnamed japanese club, however, must think that I am right to consider him one of the best centres around, as it has offered AU$ 1.25 million to the wallabies skipper. Maybe Larkham knows a little bit more about the matter, if we read between the lines.

Well, tough decission for Mortlock, ain't it? Perhaps the wallabies need him, but didn't they need Larkham as well? When will come the time for Mortlock to say farewell? Will he be offered anything better? For how long will the wallabies need him?

If Mortlock leaves, it will be a hard blow for the wallabies, but an oportunity as well. Deans task is going to be difficult anyway, but without him, a free space to find new talents is open.

As with Doug Howlett, Stephen Larkham or Chris Jack, I feel that the right time has come for Mortlock to point at somewhere else. If he stays, it will be ok, but if he has got to leave, now is better than ever.

Larkham: do as I say, not as I do

Australian veteran first five eighths Stephen Larkham has called on fellow wallabies players not to join him in leaving Southern Hemisphere rugby for more profitable scenarios.

Larkham, who's starting his first season with the Japanese Ricoh Black Rams, must deem himself at a different level than his former teammates, as he has stated that playing in Australia and playing for your country is very special and senior players like Stirling Mortlock should stay there still for a while.

Players heading towards the Northern Countries is a malady that once every four years happens to strike the Southern Hemisphere. This year a number of All Blacks has left New Zealand to play in Ireland, England or France and so have some australian and south african rugby players. It is something that makes you think about the course that the rugby is taking. But what seems hilarious is one of these players asking for others not to join him.

Is Larkham aware of what he is saying? Why does he rule himself out of his recommendation? How can anyone take him seriously when he behaves so unlike he asks others to do?

Media parte en Eden Park. 12-9

Se ha llegado al descanso en Auckland con el resultado de 12-9 para los All Blacks, gracias a cuatro kicks de Dan Carter (en la foto). Australia está siendo un duro rival :-S En menos de una hora sabremos quién ha salido vencedor.

2 días

Tres cosas hay en juego este sábado en Auckland, 19:35 (09:35 hora ibérica):

1. La Bledisloe Cup 2007
   
2. El Tri-Nations 2007
3. Bajarles los humos a los Wallabies (que últimamente se les han subido mucho)

Para ello, lo que Nueva Zelanda debe hacer es eso a lo que nos tiene acostumbrados: ganar.
Mucho está dando que hablar este final de torneo Tri-Nations, el más igualado de las últimas 3 ediciones, en el que absolutamente todos los contendientes han dispuesto de oportunidades para ganar. Ahí está ese 0-17 que los Springboks desperdiciaron en Sydney hace dos semanas que les hubiera alzado al primer puesto de la clasificación.
O el partido que los propios "aussies" perdieron en Ciudad del Cabo en la primera ronda.

Y es que así ha sido esta edición del torneo anual más fuerte del mundo. Nisiquiera en la victoria más abultada de Nueva Zelanda sobre Suráfrica la semana pasada (33-6) el partido fue claro hasta los últimos 15 minutos de juego.

O sea que, las espadas en alto, los nervios a flor de piel y todos pendientes del partido del sábado. De momento, lo que sí que tenemos son las alineaciones de ambos equipos:

Nueva Zelanda: 1.- Tony Woodcock 2.-Anton Oliver 3.- Carl Hayman 4.- Chris Jack 5.- Keith Robinson 6.- Jerry Collins 7.-Richie McCaw (C) 8.-Rodney So'oialo 9.- Byron Kelleher 10.- Dan Carter 11.-JoeRocokoco 12.-Luke McAllister 13.-Isaia Toevava 14.-Doug Howlett 15.-Mils Muliaina

Australia: 1.- Matt Dunning 2.- Stephen Moore 3.- Guy Shepherdson 4.- Nathan Sharpe 5.- Dan Vickerman 6.- Rocky Elsom 7.- George Smith 8.- David Lyons 9.- George Gregan 10.- Stephen Larkham 11.- Drew Mitchell 12.- Matt Giteau 13.- Stirling Mortlock (C) 14.- Mark Gerrard 15.- Adam Ashley-Cooper.

Bueno, en cuanto a bajas los Wallabies no se pueden quejar: Australia juega con su mejor equipo prácticamente mientras que por parte de los All Blacks faltan Sitiveni Sivivatu y Leon MacDonald.

Que en alguna ocasión les ha hecho esto a los Wallabies: