Powerful Blues or weak All Blacks?

That's the whispered question going on all along New Zealand, and perhaps, it's the same at the other side of the Tasman Sea.
In South Africa they are all too focused on their win over the Lions to even rise their sight to other places.

But, how can we explain the fact that New Zealand did not smash France as was in everybody's mind before the series, but rather escaped a series defeat although were not able to retain the Gallagher Cup?

Well, let's examine things closely once the games are over.

1. Casualties were there for both teams. So it's not that the All Blacks can blame casualties for failing to produce the game everybody was expecting.
2. How can a team produce just their third Grand Slam tour in 100 years in November and draw a test series to France at home next June?
3. Is super 14 the best breed for test games?
4. Does Super 14 lack intensity?
5. How important the ELVs have been?
6. How important the Graham Henry (Robbi Deans) has been in order to adapt to the old (new) rules?
7. Why does Donald look so error-prone at test level? Can he cope with the intensity of test matches?
8. When an experienced tight five in a pack weighing over 900 kg misserably fails to dominate a 830 kg pack, is it a matter of form? What's Tialata exactly doing there?
9. If France was so bad at the 6 Nations, how come they have posed such a big threat for these two tests?

And the last and more important question: Is form the glue that will put all things in place, come the Tri-Nations?

The game was not that bad

I have watched the game again and I must say there are some signs that the All Blacks should do much better next time.

First, as the coaches pointed out so wisely, it was all mainly about physicality. Turnover after turnover killed the All Blacks which were not specially bad in attack, the problem was that they didn't exactly enjoy quality possession.

Apart from that, one must admire the lock pair. Ross was superb in the lineout and Thorn was exactly doing what the loose trio should have. Bringing his body to the game. Keven Mealamu and Aled de Malmanche can show the guys how it is done.

Stephen Donald deserves a special chapter. The boy should do the basics. And just that; the basics. With time, with confidence and with a bit more experience he'll be able to do "different" things, but those are not what the team needs now, specially when every bit of ball possession is so precious. He kicks well. He kicks well indeed. Let the boy grow from where he's at the moment.

Let's see what the next test brings.

By the way: Do not be much too impressed with Deans trying Barnes at 10. Given that Quade Cooper has not got enough experience to start at 10 for the Wallabies, someone must backup the best first five in Australia.

Stupid assholes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Beware when you put your fingers onto the new All Blacks players looking for guilts after the (twice-in-a-row) defeat to the French.

I have read in some places that it was due to All Blacks errors.

Beware.

The mere fact that you are afraid of the All Blacks losing does not mean they ought not to try things.

Do not be harsh on Messam for trying a late run and a chip kick over the French which the French number 8 gathered and ended up in the second French try. You'd better laud him for his audacity, or otherwise you are risking them not being able to try it again.

If I were the All Blacks coach, nothing would I fear more that a gang of players afraid to play.

Do not expect much of the first test

Twins New Zealand and Australia start their first tests of the season.

For Australia, it should not be much different than the Barbarians, except for the never-ending high expectations put on the Italian forwards. They are physical, they say. True, but physicality ain't everything in forwards play. There's more to it. So, expect a tough physical match for the aussies, but a comfortable win.

For New Zealand, things are pretty much the same. Concerns are everywhere in this ever-scared-of-losing country but the truth is that the side that Henry fields does not lack class, does not lack power, and more importantly, does not lack form. Which Les Blues happen to lack. What is more, they cannot fiedl their best 15. So, don't be afraid, the beloved All Blacks shall win.

These games will only give some ground to the newbies (less trialed players) in both squads: O'Connor, Brown, Turner for the Wallabies; Ross, Messam, Read, Wulf for the All Blacks.

And that's all.

Sonny Bill Williams (again)

So, now it seems Sonny Bill Williams is playing tricks to get a chance to play the 2011 RWC.
When Sonny Bill Williams says he is elligible to play for Australia, is he putting pressure on NZRU to sign him? is he desperate for someone to hire him? is he doing both things?

When asked about Sonny Bill Williams helping injury concerns in the All Blacks camp (Kahui needing surgery and Smith out to a hamstring) Graham Henry laughed.

Is NZRU keen to sign Sonny Bill Williams? Is Sonny Bill Williams asking too much money? Is it fair for people like, say, So'oailo or Muliaina, commited to the NZRU despite lucrative offshore offers that a youngster with as much talent as things to prove in this new code could surpass what they earn?

All in all, it's down to the same thing, the cruel and vile gold, which was exactly what rugby sold its soul for, wasn' t it?

Boring weekend

It's been a bore.

The Barbarians couldn't put up a team against the Wallabies.
The second-string Cheetahs made the Lions blush.
And Perpignan won the Top 14. Good news at last for Carter.

Which game was worst? I'll tell you one thing: The Wallabies are a very good team, the Barbarians are on vacation. That match was the worst.

Let's see what the next week brings on.

BTW: MacAlister can't play 10.

Matt Giteau, Rocky Elsom to the Brumbies

Have you paid a close look to the back row of the Brumbies for the upcoming season?

Elsom, Smith, Hoiles. Nothing less.

Have you paid attention to the halfback-five eight-center combination?

Valentine, Giteau, O'Connor, Mortlock.

So, Bulls, here's your first enemy to win a second Super 14 tournament in a row.

The question is, what can be expected from the drained (e.g. Western Force) franchises? With the Waratahs model already stuck, is Australia putting all the eggs in one single bag?

Super 14 review

The Super 14 2009 is over. The Bulls, crowned champions, have been the best team in a very very contested tournament where resilience has been the key.

Resilience was with all three Australian contenders, with the Waratahs losing the fourth spot to the Crusaders only by points difference. Resilience was also in the Brumbies, a very very interesting side for Robbie Deans, as the faith they have shown will be very handful come the Tri Nations and Bledisloe. Resilience was what brought the Crusaders from the 11th place in round 5 to a place in the semifinals two months later.

But above all, the Bulls have shone. Their easy game-plan, their ruthlessness at the breakdown, their superb kicking game, their deathly counter-attack game and the incredible boot of the young man who's going to lead the Springboks for a long time have put them beyond their rivals.
More importantly, they have fine tuned them as the competition went on and their form of the last month has been simply astounding.

A lot of "ifs" will have to be answered next season. Some of those "ifs" include Daniel Carter's absence, a load of injuries to a number of players in every single kiwi franchise, the change of the set of ELVs in use... To see whether the Bulls can show this year's impressive form is almost as exciting as to see whether any team can come up with the key to dismantle these Bulls' game.

Some warning should be sent to the South African franchises, though. Cheetahs, Lions and Stormers have too oft been sure wins and three sparring franchises out of five are far too many. When the Boks play the Lions, Wallabies and All Blacks, they are going to need more than two options (Sharks or Bulls) for every position. Andy Marinos may have fought for a sixth franchise in South Africa, but the truth is that the prospect of having another african franchise with less than 4 wins is not appealing for the future of Super Rugby.

But now the Super 14 2009 is over and the Lions tour is focusing all sights. What will the Boks do against this Lions side? Who's playing 15 and who's covering 3? What's the depth of this team?

Super 14 final prediction

This is the toughest call I have done.

Bulls 26 - Chiefs 23

Don't ask me, I just wish it will happen the other way around. I simply don't think it will. Our players are focused, the quality is there, they have been winning close matches, of late; but like someone said: Loftus is like the Everest... We miss sir Edmund Hillary.

Go Chiefs! Go Chiefs! Go Chiefs all the way.

About legacies

I never thought Victor Matfield was anything close to outspoken; on the contrary I thought he was a pretty decent guy, very realistic in terms of rugby, as he knows what it takes to climb on to the top.

Just the opposite of what the Watsons have always done.

That's why it's so thrilling to see him talking about legacies, or the Bulls building a Crusader-like legacy, with just less than a week to go before the final. Should you not be concentrating, talking your chances more down than up and focusing on what's surely going to be a massive game?

All odds may be in your favor, but in rugby it is tackles, not odds, what wins titles; And only after a number of titles has been won (and the key word is after) careless journos write on legacies. Duncan Johnston says Victor Matfield has gone one step or six too far... For once I agree.

There's only one legacy in Super Rugby. And it has not been a matter of winning one year or two. In Canterbury they have a culture of rugby, a culture of winning. Players have come and gone and still the culture has been mantained. The Andrew Mehrtens left room for the Daniel Carters, the Blackadders, for the McCaws, the Marshalls were substitued by the Ellises... and the important things, the things that have made of the Crusaders a successful team have been preserved.

Back to Earth, you have not won anything yet, Mr Matfield, and you would do well to stop thinking in legacies and start thinking about the Chiefs, or keep dreaming at your own risk.

Praise of the Chiefs

Astounding. Simply astounding.

How can a team start off a season by losing the first three games and then make the finals? The Chiefs have done so, by winning 10 out of the following 11 games. Their only other loss was a hard-fought game in Pretoria, which leaves the count at 10 victories and 4 losses for the Chiefs, and still counting.

What have they done today? They have used their weapons to full efect. Even without May, without Leonard and without Kahui, even suffering a bit in the set-piece. But Sivivatu was attacking from everywhere, Masaga, too. Muliaina being everywhere and Donald kicking and passing wisely. Just unlike Willie Ripia.

I said at the beginning of the season that the weak point of this Hurricanes was at 10. Well, today they lost the game there. Senseless kicking and an accurate Chiefs defense and counter-attack put the Chiefs on top.

Back to 2006 memories for the 'canes as in the final 5 minutes an old foe came back; the fog. Bad omens for a team that had everything to win the Super 14, but this year they came up short. Again.

Congratulations, Chiefs. Robbie Deans predicted a Hurricanes-Crusaders final. I hope he'll be right in at least one name of the two finalists.

Super 14 semifinals prediction

Chiefs 24 - Hurricanes 26
Bulls 17 - Crusaders 14

And that's all I have to say.

Praise of the Crusaders

Having started the season with just a win in the first five rounds, no one expected the Crusaders to be able to claim a spot in the top four. Having suffered cruel injuries to almost any senior player (Franks, McCaw, MacDonald, Thorn, Ellis, Laulala...) early in the season, what were the real chances of the Crusaders to make way through to the semis?

Todd Blackadder's team has been able to do so. Youngsters like Colin Slade or Ryan Crotty have been inmense. Veterans like Kieran Read have glued the team together. And wins over every major foe (and a sole loss to the Cheetahs) in the last 8 weeks have put them where we all wanted them to be.

Congratulations, Crusaders. Robbie Deans has spoken of the resilience of the Brumbies. Fighting against everything to keep their hopes alive. He has not spoken of you, guys, who have done as well as the Brumbies until round 13, and have bettered what the Brumbies achieved in the last round.

Now, how valuable was the last-second goal kick by Leon MacDonald against the Cheetahs? Or how much is worth the fourth try scored against the Hurricanes in Christchurch?

Wonderful job, boys. And remember you have already beaten the Bulls this season.

Praise of the Lions

Not for the first time this season the Lions surprise me. Despite having lost to the Waratahs, they have shown commitment and a will to win the match as if their own chances of classifying were at stake.

The final minutes have been a nail biter. After trailing 17-28 at half time, they were able to come back and take the lead, just to allow the decisive try to the Waratahs with 5 minutes left. A final penalty put the Lions within 5 meters of the aussie line and indeed they seemed they had scored a try when referee Marius Jonker called for a forward pass...

But it was not the end of the story. For three times the Lions put their hearts in the scrum and asked the ref to call for a free kick in their favour... After three resets the Lions loosehead prop (or was it the hooker?) lost his foot in the scrum and the ball was freed for the Waratahs backs to kick it out. The Waratahs won 38-33.

Sharks and Crusaders will have to fight if they want to match the 'tahs.

Super 14 round 14 predictions

Well, I kept myself out of any rugby for a few hours and now I feel I am ready to do the predictions.

At the time I am writing this, I don't know what my predictions will exactly be, but I am certain of various things: The Sharks are too tired. The Bulls are rampant. The Chiefs will win. The Waratahs will win as well. The Crusaders are a better team thant the Blues.

So, let's start:

Chiefs 24 - Brumbies 17 (Thus comes to an end the resilient Brumbies campaign)
Lions 18 - Waratahs 33 (bonus point, yes, for the Waratahs)
Blues 22 - Crusaders 26 (I cannot predict if the Crusaders will get a bonus point. I will say they won't)
Reds 20 - Hurricanes 35 (No mercy)
Force 13 - Highlanders 15 (Who cares?)
Cheetahs 17 - Stormers 14 (Any more injuries for the Lions tour?)
Sharks 17 - Bulls 23 (With this, the Bulls will claim top spot of the table, and will have a good shot to win the title)

If all this happens, the four graceful teams will be:

1. Bulls 46
2. Chiefs 45
3. Hurricanes 44
4. Waratahs 41
5. Crusaders 41
6. Brumbies 38
7. Sharks 37

Now, beware. If only the 'tahs can't score 4 tries in Johannesburg or the Crusaders manage to score 4 tries against the demoralised, unable to defend Blues, the Crusaders shall classify:

1. Bulls 46
2. Chiefs 45
3. Hurricanes 44
4. Crusaders 42
5. Waratahs 41
6. Brumbies 38
7. Sharks 37

I would also like to quote Spiro Zavos, when he reminds us all that this nail bitter is only due to the fact that teams qualify independently of the nation where they are from:

"SA Rugby killed off an excellent proposal to have six teams in the finals by insisting that each of the SANZAR partners have two teams in the finals. This nonsense was rejected by the ARU and the NZRU. If the two-team policy was in place all the drama that is coming up this weekend, with the last match between the Sharks and the Bulls probably deciding who is in or out, would be lost."

Aussies impressed me!!!!

Both Waratahs and Brumbies have been on the very razor's edge for the past three weeks. I did expect and in fact I did predict both teams to be out by now but the real truth is that they are still in the hunt for the playoffs.

With the semifinals cut-off at 41 points (or perhaps 42), both teams need a bonus point victory to have any chance to get through it, but they are capable of doing it.

Specially difficult is the task for the Brumbies, as no team has bonus-pointed a win in Hamilton this season, and the Chiefs are looking really powerful. But the Waratahs could very well get a win, and even a bonus point victory, after their unexpected feat of beating the Sharks at home.

I now think that Bulls, Chiefs, Hurricanes and Crusaders will get classified, but the aussies are still there, which is amazing... Amazing.

Super 14 round 13 Predictions

With the blues of knowing that Leon MacDonald will be gone by June still inside me, I will be a bit hard on the Reds Prediction today. So sorry, guys, I like you above any other side in Aus, but the Crusaders need the points and Leon's last game in Christchurch is well deserved a biased prediction.

Apart from that, Hurricanes and Chiefs could get both classified this week if both score 4 tries and the Chiefs win by seven points or less. The other two must-see are Brumbies-Blues and Sharks-Waratahs. Expect a win for the home side in both games, although with unpredictable Blues, who would dare?

Crusaders 34 - Reds 16 (A try by Leon MacDonald included, of course)
Lions 23 - Highlanders 18 (This end of season tour is meaningless for the Highlanders)
Chiefs 32 - Hurricanes 28 (This is unrealistic, I know, but I want the Chiefs to get 5 points)
Brumbies 25 - Blues 23 (Do not be mistaken, 4 points are not enough for the Brumbies)
Sharks 18 - Waratahs 13 (With this, all hopes by any Australian franchise should be over)
Bulls 24 - Cheetahs 16 (And thus the Bulls would also get through)
Stormers 14 - 11 Force (Believe it or not, this is the hardest match to predict. Both are teams with more rugby than their position suggests but their internal problems have hindered them throughout the season. I don't know who shall look harder for a win)

And the table would look like this for the last round:

1. Chiefs 42
2. Hurricanes 41
3. Bulls 41
4. Sharks 39
5. Crusaders 37
6. Brumbies 36
7. Waratahs 33
8. Blues 32

Which would mean that Sharks and Crusaders would find themselves fighting in Durban against the Bulls and in Auckland against the Blues at the same time for a place in the top four. I think the Crusaders will grab it.

Goodbye

Leon MacDonald has signed with japanese club Kintetsu and will play there right after this season is over. He is reported to be in Japan by June, so I suppose that leaves no room for him playing any games for Canterbury.

This is the end of Leon MacDonald as an All Black, and this weekend's game in Christchurch will certainly be his last match in home soil for the Crusaders (even if the Crusaders achieve the feat to get to the semifinals, they would play any playoff games away).

I would like to say just once again how much I like Leon MacDonald. He's the fullback whose play I have enjoyed the most. I will certainly miss him.

Best of lucks, Leon.

Lions vs Boks, stop the nonsense talk

John McBride, former player for the Lions:

"I know the game's changed, I know the game's professional and I know that scrummaging has changed but, whether we like it or not, I still believe that the team that can scrummage is the team that wins the match."

Please, someone can stop this nonsense? Can someone explain this old legend that the team who shall govern the breakdown will have more quality possession and therefore, will have more chances to attack? Can someone tell him that line-out mastery is far more important than a slight advantage in the scrum?

In the Super 14, when a free kick is awarded and the ball is not immediately released so the attacking team can take the defending players receding and flat-footed, a scrum is preferred rather than a free kick. Why? because it's more useful than a free kick.

Now, what does make McBride think that with no ELVs sanctioning, the scrums will be so important? I know it is a matter of pride about the scrum more than anything else, but please, we're not back in the seventies, pride is not the key to win. Ability to understand what your team needs is. So, please, pick a pair of halfback, first-five who can rule the game against du Preez and Pienaar, if you want to have a chance to win anything.

Springboks who are injured at this very moment.

This is a list of Springbok players who are currently unavailable to play and, in some cases, won't play against the Lions.

• Conrad Jantjes, fullback
• Adi Jacobs, centre
• Frans Steyn, second five eighths
• Jean de Villiers, second five eighths
• Butch James, first five eighths
• Fourie du Preez, halfback
• Schalck Burger, openside flanker
• Andries Bekker, lock

Shall we review this list on a weekly basis?

Please, think a bit

At the beginning of the Super 14 season we were shocked to see so many New Zealand players, specially All Blacks players, hit by injuries every once and again. Form was generally poor by kiwi sides and in round two, the only win by a kiwi side was against another kiwi side. Meanwhile, the South African franchises were all happy to see both Bulls and Sharks in command.

Three months later, kiwi players have tended to recover from injuries and gained some form and little by little kiwi sides have popped up to the Super 14 table, and now it seems it is the South Africans who are getting numerous injuries. The Springboks coach, Peter de Villiers has just asked what the prospects of playing in the all-important Lions series are for a number of injuries.

And in the meantime, nonsense talk about the Super 15 has been going on. They all want more games and more money and there are two silly ways to get it: the South African way which would require to start even earlier, say, in January, and the Australasian way which would require to extend the Super 14 until July and even play international tests at the same time that the Super 14 is being played.

So, do you guys realise that will only increase the number of injuries? How many games per season you want your players to play? Please, think a bit.

Super 14 round 12 predictions

Last week was much of the same thing. Was ever a harder Super 14 season to be doing predictions?

So, it is more for you, loyal readers of the weekly predictions here at Ka Mate Ka Mate, than for anything else that I keep posting my predictions this week.

This week's about consistency. Hurricanes should defeat a non-consistent Blues team; that would almost secure them the payoffs. But the Blues have been performing like a wave: one hill and one valley. Will the Hurricanes unleash the real power of the Blues to their fate? Don't worry about the Sharks or the Bulls. They shall win. The Stormers vs Chiefs game could be the one to watch, as the classy Stormers arrive in home after an ill-fated tour. But the Chiefs, even in the defeat at Loftus, have shown they are a fearsome team and they are certain a much better SA tourists than they were in the past. The Brumbies and the Waratahs need wins. But they also need bonus points. They may get wins, but I'm not so sure about bonus points.

So, to the facts:

Hurricanes 34 - Blues 27 (I would only ask for both teams to get 4 tries. The outcome of the game, I really don't care)
Lions 18 - Crusaders 24 (McCaw is not playing, Laulala is also out and the Crusaders need all their firepower to get a bonus point from Jo'burg)
Cheetahs 16 - Waratahs 23 (This is the warm-up for the real Waratahs exam next week. Beware Waratahs or the Cheetahs could very well bite you out of the playoffs)
Reds 25 - Brumbies 18 (This is the end of the story for the Brumbies)
Sharks 33 - Highlanders 23 (The real question is: will the Sharks get 5? They need it)
Bulls 27 - Force 15 (The Bulls and the Hurricanes are my picks to host both semifinals)
Stormers 22 - Chiefs 40 (This win is 50% of the playoffs road for the Chiefs. They deserve it. They really do.)

Therefore, the table after this round would look something like this:

1. Hurricanes 38
2. Chiefs 37
3. Bulls 37
4. Sharks 35
5. Waratahs 32
6. Blues 31
7. Crusaders 31
8. Force 28
9. Brumbies 28

Why I can't stand football

Englishmen used to say that their real national team is the rugby national team (A.K.A. pommies, for the rest of the world), whereas in most other european countries (Germany, Spain, Italy...) the only possible team is the football national team.

So, in a time when a football star can earn as much as the whole budget of a team like, let's say, Perpignan (currently on top of French Top14), in the U.K. there are lots of campaigns to convince people switch their attention towards rugby.

It's fair, given the fact that RFU almost rules everything in rugby these days, including which ELVs should stay and which are not worth even a try. It's fair that they try to gather people from football, as people mean money and money means power. It's something that can be done in England. Or Scotland. Or Ireland. Not many more places.

To us, people from other countries, not blessed with the glorious gift of having been born in a place where they cook using filthy butter instead of olive oil, where they can't make a proper salad, don't know any use for the tomatoes, have no proper fruits at all, don't have quality meat and lack every possible single sign of civilised cuisine... For us, people not blessed with the glorious gift of such a nationality, rugby is not something we grow up with, and we need external help to get into it.

This is one or two weeks old and a very good example of what makes a normal person switch towards rugby.

Blues are out of it. It could be a tough day for New Zealand franchises.

The Reds totally outsmarted the Blues and the Auckland franchise is out of the playoffs contention.

It is alarming the ease with which the Reds dismantled Blues display. It should make the Blues coach think.

By the way, today could be a terrible day for the New Zealand franchises. At this very moment, the Blues are down 5-31 in Albany while the Brumbies have just scored a try in Wellington.

Good luck, 'canes.

Super 14 round 11 predictions

It's predictions time at Ka Mate Ka Mate...

And it is hard times in Sydney and Durban. No matter what happens, Bulls, Chiefs, Hurricanes, Brumbies and Crusaders will look to put miles ahead of Sharks and Waratahs who may well be wondering what would have happened if their last week's games (bonus-point losses for both teams) would have been played after a bye and not before a bye.

But so to the facts,

The Bulls and the Chiefs meet in Pretoria, where the Bulls have not lost a game this season. The Bulls have done a bit of what Rassie Erasmus claimed to be the key to put his Stormers into the playoffs during the pre-season: make your home ground a fortress, so it is not going to be easy for the Chiefs not to be bullied at Loftus. I claim that whoever wins the match will play home advantage during the semifinals. The Hurricanes and the Brumbies face each other in Wellington in a sweet moment for every team, and neither team can afford a loss. Crusaders and Blues need a bonus point win, and while the Blues play at home and have shown their attacking power, the Crusaders play away and they need to remember how to score tries if they are to get classified.

Highlanders 22 - Stormers 13 (a meaningless game that should, however, cement some All Blacks contenders' hopes. A win for the Highlanders)
Western Force 33 - Lions 19 (The Force are 18 points away from the playoffs and this is their only easy game remaining. They'll get 5)
Blues 42 - Reds 14 (While the Reds can be a formidable foe, ask the Sharks, the fact that they are playing for nothing will sort things out. Besides, no return home for Braid leaves this match spicyless)
Hurricanes 28 - Brumbies 26 (This would be the match of the week, should any of those teams not be a bore)
Cheetahs 23 - Crusaders 30 (Either bonus point or DEATH for the Crusaders)
Bulls 25 - Chiefs 19 (I would love the Chiefs to win, but they have lost to the Waratahs, the Crusaders and the Sharks, and only been able to defeat the Blues. They have trouble with the big teams)

So, I wouldn't be surprised if at the end of round 11 the table looks something like this:

1. Bulls 33
2. Hurricanes 33
   
3. Blues 33
   
4. Chiefs 32
5. Sharks 31
6. Crusaders 31
7. Waratahs 28
8. Brumbies 28
   

Who will make the playoffs and who won't

Only a few weeks ago no one would have bet on:

• The Bulls or the Sharks in risk of not making the semifinals.
• The Crusaders with real options of making the semifinals.
• The Chiefs on top of the table.

And this is how the picture is right now, with just 4 games to go (except for Waratahs and Sharks, with only 3 games remaining).

First of all, given the fact that both Waratahs and Sharks have been playing for ten succesive rounds without a bye and both have lost their last week's game, had not it been fairer if they had rested last week?

But, that's not the subject, although it could take a high toll to both Durban and Sydney at the end of the season. What are the chances of every contender to the title?

1. Chiefs. The Chiefs have got it right since round 3. 28 points in 6 rounds must be a kind of record and have deserverdly lifted the Chiefs to the number 1 spot. But two are the Chiefs main foes, now: a hard calendar, with games in Pretoria and Cape Town and two finals in the final weeks against Hurricanes and Brumbies is the first, and their own ghosts of the past is the other. Last year they were also in a run when suddenly they fainted. This year, things look much better for them, with better play, a better position in the ladder, but still, the hard calendar lies ahead. The Chiefs would need at least 10 points to classify, which inevitably means two wins. Wins at Cape Town and against the Brumbies are a must, while everything would smoother if they manage to win at Loftus Versfeld next week. I think the Chiefs will end with 41 points and possibly, fighting for the 4th place.
2. Sharks. All of a sudden, the Sharks numbers are not right. With a bye next week, their worst enemy could be the lack of chances to gather points. With Highlanders, Waratahs and Bulls visiting the once so strong Durban's fortress, how many points can the Sharks get? 15 points would see them classified, but, can they get three victories? 2 wins and a loss could see them getting less than 10 points (they have 31 now and will have 31 next week), and Waratahs and Bulls will surely be desperate for a win. The Sharks-Bulls game in the last round will be the most exciting game of the season for sure. I predict the Sharks to end with 41 or 42 points fighting for the 4th place.
3. Bulls. The Bulls are possibly the team with the easiest path to the top. Three games at Loftus Versfeld could be enough for them, making the last game in Durban less relevant. But if for any reason they lose one of their three home games, they would come to the last week with less than 40 points and praying for a win. That means that the game against the Chiefs will be a final for the Bulls. If they get this one, the Force and the Cheetahs won't look so threatening and they could seem themselves already classified with 42 points with one game to go. My prediction is that the Bulls will end in first-second place with 43 or44 points.
   
4. Hurricanes. Beware. The Hurricanes can get to the first place. They play the Brumbies and the Blues at home, the Chiefs in Hamilton and the Reds in Brisbane. They should be targetting both games at home and the one in Brisbane, for a total amount of 14 points. For them, getting the most of their upcoming fixtures at home is life or death. Neither the Brumbies nor the Blues will be easy victims, but the Mackay mourn alone won't be enough for the Brumbies and the Blues... well, the Blues look fearsome. I think the Hurricanes will end with 42 or 43 fighting with the Bulls.
5. Blues. Oh, God. The Blues have stolen the Chiefs the label of being the most powerful and the most vulnerable team of the Super 14 this season. They have the advantage of playing three games in New Zealand and one in Canberra, but their rivals won't be easy at all. Hurricanes, Brumbies and Crusaders could spoil their bid to the playoffs. Their first game against the Reds will surely give them 5 points but, how many points can get them out of the last three? A win in Canberra won't be easy, but a win in Wellington seems even more difficult. The Blues could see themselves in the last round with 37 points playing in Auckland an all or nothing game against the Crusaders. Nothing less. You cannot miss the last week!!! I predict the Blues will fall short of the playoffs, with 38 points at the end of it.
6. Waratahs. Oh, God (bis). The Waratahs do have 27 points and will have 27 points next week, which is a burden almost too heavy to wear. The loss to the Force could have come at a heavier loss; they are now 14 points away of the playoffs with only three games remaining. And their try-scoring ability is not their best quality. They could get 9 from Bloemfontein and Jo'burg, but do you see them getting 5 or even 4 from Durban? Even 13 points in three games would not be enough. I predict the Waratahs to finish with 37 points out of the playoffs just like the Blues.
7. Brumbies. The Death of Shawn Mackay has made the Brumbies click. Now they share something in common which is greater than the colors they defend. They are now together in a quest to offer their lost teammate their affection, their love towards him. This is what permitted them to defeat the Bulls last week and make them a hard foe, if not the hardest of the foes. Expect the Brumbies to win every game when decided by close margins. But their toughest game will be next week at WestPack stadium, against the Hurricanes. Only 4 wins will be enough for the lack-of-bonus-points Brumbies, but I don't see them getting close to it. I can see them gathering 10 or 12 points and ending with the Blues and Waratahs or perhaps a bit better, 38 or 39 points, but not enough to get to the playoffs.
8. Crusaders. Cheetahs, Lions, Reds and Blues. All away, none at home. Expect the Crusaders, the hot team of the competition to win their three games coming to Auckland and perhaps reaching 39 points before coming back to New Zealand. Then, in one of the strongest rivalries in the history of Super 14, both teams might play a game with the winner getting a place in the playoffs. I'll be bold and concede the victory to the Crusaders, ending thus with 43 or 44 points and, oh surprise, on top of the ladder.

Then, this would be my predictions for the ultimate standings

1. Bulls, 43
2. Crusaders, 43
3. Hurricanes, 42
4. Chiefs, 41
5. Sharks, 41
6. Brumbies, 39
7. Blues, 38
8. Waratahs, 37
   

I think that Waratahs, Brumbies and Blues won't make the semifinals, but they could drag some teams with them out of the playoffs. This is the toughest of the calls, but I'm sticking to it.

Cowan's guilty

Glen Moore can be annoyed by Cowan's behavior yesterday at Eden Park.

When you are a skipper, you don't turn your own free kicks into penalties against you.
When you are a skipper, you don't talk more to the referee than you do to your teammates.
When you are a skipper, you don't let your team one man down for illegal, nonsense, shoulder charges.

Even with a normal skipper, the Highlanders would have lost yesterday's match. But having Cowan as skipper can do Highlanders more harm than good. He loses his focus and that does not make for a good skipper.

Good day.

Super 14 round 10 predictions

This is a tough week to predict. Not that the past was easy, either (did anyone bet on a Cheetahs' 25-point victory over the Sharks?) but I must confess this time I don't know where to start.

Firstly, would you risk predicting any outcome of the North vs South game? I like the Highlanders, I want them to win, but... do you trust the Blues, either for the good or for the bad? Pat Lam seems confident that he's finally found the recipe for his Blues, but the Highlanders are full of confidence after, let me remind you, three wins in a row. Besides, the once most powerful first row in New Zealand, the Blues' first row, seem now weak against the Super 14's best-fit first row, in which Newland, Mackintosh and Hall feature. However, the Blues play at home. But the Blues have not performed well at all this year at Eden Park. Who can tell???

Secondly, will the Cheetahs strike twice in a row? They have a clear 2009 record: 100% of wins at home, and 0% wins on the road. The thing is, all their upcoming matches are at home. Besides, the Chiefs always struggle in SA. Can anyone bet on a Cheetahs loss at home after they dismantled the Sharks? But the Chiefs look certainly impressive. They managed to defeat the Reds in Brisbane with apparent ease, the same Brisbane where the Cheetahs were severely punished.

What would you expect of the Sharks against the Crusaders? Can the Bulls prove Heineke Meyer right when he predicted three wins out of five games for his former franchise during their australasian tour?

I'm going mad. This is what I think:

Blues 28 - Highlanders 31 (Berquist, Vainikolo, Bowden, Shoemark, Smith, Dagg. If one manages to learn the names of the any team's backs and they feature in the game, they have a chance to win)
Brumbies 21 - Bulls 16 (Fear the new-look, dry, Brumbies)
Hurricanes 18 - Stormers 12 (I would not bother to watch this game. Both sides are playing horribly)
Red 27 - Lions 21 (Did I ever tell you I like these Reds?)
Waratahs 31 - Western Force 18 (From time to time the Waratahs like to remind us how damn good they are. I have the feeling that this is going to be one of these times)
Cheetahs 12 - Chiefs 24 (After the feat, comes the relax)
Sharks 15 - Crusaders 11 (My kingdom for a red and black try!)

Colin Cooper, you should learn from the Cheetahs

The Hurricanes coach blasted the Super 14 calendar when his sided had so little time to recover after a trip to SA followed by a game in Perth.

Wonderful. Then, what should the Cheetahs, whose seven starting games have been played outside Bloemfontein, think about the calendar?

No complains, mister, as the calendar is not specially difficult for the Hurricanes. The conference system, if ever the SANZAR reaches an agreement over that matter, will certainly ease travel troubles which, I swear, are not bigger for the kiwis than are for the saffers.

Super 14 round 9 predictions

Chiefs and Crusaders have a bye this week while Sharks and Waratahs will seek to extend their lead. Hurricanes and Western Force play a crucial game for both teams whereas the Brumbies certainly play for more than a single win after the painful death of Shawn Mackay.

Blues 44 - Lions 21 (Last train for the Blues. Can they get on ?)
Western Force 18 - Hurricanes 23 ( It could be the other way around, but I want the Wellingtonians to win)
Cheetahs 12 - Sharks 20 (The Sharks will win in Bloemfontein, but not easily)
Highlanders 32 - Reds 19 (One team is going up and the other is going down)
Brumbies 20 - Stormers 10 (The Brumbies have been struck twice in two years with terrifying health issues over their players. Best of lucks to them)
Waratahs 14 - Bulls 12 (This is going to be the match of the week)

Shawn Mackay

I have no words.
Rest in peace.

Brave Lions should have won

The Chiefs can be pleased. Can be happy, indeed.

8 games gone and 27 points lift them to a place into the top 3. Their bye week comes next and after that, winning 3 games out of 5 should be enough to see them qualify for the semis.

But after impressive wins over Reds and Blues, they can call themselves lucky to have escaped the ropes with which the Lions had tied them early in Hamilton today.

The Lions played great. The Lions played brave. With impressive defense against the expansive approach of the Chiefs, they conceded just 10 points in the first 40 minutes while Pretorius and Fourie dismantled the weak Chiefs defense. Mils Muliaina did have trouble with the number on his jersey and more trouble with the tricky balls the Lions played. Fourie was happy. 10-22 at halftime.

The gap was widened through an interception by the Lions and with 20 minutes to go, the Chiefs saw themselves 19 points behind.

Hika Elliot came in for Aled de Malmanche and the recipe worked. Better throwing at the line-out put confidence on the Chiefs, just what they needed to unleash their backs. One, two, three and four times the Chiefs crossed the line as the look on the eyes of the Lions was of resignation.

The Chiefs were again on top, Donald kicking superbly and not even a drop goal could put the Lions ahead again. Game over.

Chiefs 36 - Lions 29

Yes! I made a mistake!

Sure! Wonderful thing that I totally missunderstood the Crusaders - Bulls game. I thought the Bulls would go on to win the game in the latter stages...

But Brett's kicking and drop goaling was enough to tame the Bulls.

4 ugly points are still 4 points. Even for the exquisite rugby standards of Canterbury.

Congratulations, guys.

Crusaders 16 - Bulls 13

Super 14 Round 8 Predictions

Last week I did pretty well. I only failed to understand that the Blues would misserably loss to the Waratahs and, although I predicted the Highlanders to prevail over the Bulls, I did not foresee such a margin.

This week is consederably tougher for the kiwi franchises. The Crusaders receive a wounded Bulls side with Matfield and Habana back from their respective injuries. McCaw is still out and Ellis is out again. The Hurricanes, despite the win in Johanesburg showed weakness against the Lions and it is not going to get any easier in Durban. Only the Chiefs can be confident they will win, as they receive the Lions in Hamilton before their Bye.

So, these are my predictions:

Crusaders 18 - Bulls 23 (It's hard to predict the Crusaders will lose, but even with Slade at the wing and a magnificent Read they are lacking firepower)
Western Force 25 - Reds 28 (This should be a fun game to watch. I like the Reds and my friend Miff likes the Force)
Chiefs 33 - Lions 17 (Last season the Chiefs were on their usual mid-season come-back when they unexpectedly lost in Johanesburg a match they needed to win so badly. Suddenly their chances to reach the finals were over. This year, the revenge will be in Hamilton)
Waratahs 25 - Stormers 15 (The Waratahs are in the 3rd place and want to see themselves away of the chasing group that starts with the Chiefs, and the Stormers want to join the chasing group. A defining match for the two teams, but I feel the 'tahs will not give the Stormers any chance)
Cheetahs 23 - Brumbies 28 (The Cheetahs have Smith back but the captain has not been able to grant them more than two wins in the last two years. No hope for the Cheetahs)
Sharks 24 - Hurricanes 22 (The Hurricanes are pretenders, but the Sharks are contenders)

All in all, a tough week for NZ teams, it seems.

Super Expansion

Expanding the Super 14 does not look like a good idea.

I think it has all come down to money, and what the aim behind super expansion is, it can only be money.

More teams mean more matches. More matches mean more attendance and more TV and that means more money. 22 games definately mean more money.

Do Super rugby need more games? Money is needed, certainly, but is more Rugby good for Super Rugby? Everybody seems to agree with the idea that the level has been dropped a level or two since the las Super Expansion. No, Cheetahs and Force are not responsible for it, but could it be that more games on an already crowded calendar are killing the cow?

14 Super rugby games + 6 3N games + at least 5 or 6 ANC or Currie Cup games + 4 November tests = 30 games per season.

Do we really intend to increase the number of the games a player must play and at the same time ask the player to maintain top form from week 1 to week 52?

Super Rugby needs a re-think and a schedule from January to June cannot be mantained. Beside, the expansion does not take into the equation both Argentina and the Islanders... which would certainly make for a healthier pool of players.

Please, Marinos, O'Neill and Tew, don't look at the short-term. I don't want enough money to retain the required players in order to win the 2011 RWC; What I want is to enjoy the Rugby from 2009 on.

Message in a bottle

The following message has been put in a bottle and the authors hope it will pass from hand to hand until it reaches Jonah Lomu. The message at the moment of writing this post is thought to be in Dublin.

Dear Jonah,

We are writing to you because we think you are the best rugby player in history and also because you are our model to imitate these hard days. We are player aged from 11 to 14 playing in the Vigo Rugby club. Vigo is an industrial city in the Atlantic Coast of Spain. There is not much passion for rugby here, but you know, when rugby is inside you, it does not really matter how many people might be attending the game.

You can figure out that not even in normal conditions it is easy to play rugby here. But with the economic crisis things are much worse. Unemployment increases all around, companies close and it's all looking so bad. We feel it both in our families and also inside our rugby club. We started the season with no sponsorship, as the ones we had last season couldn't stay any longer. In the end, we could kick the season off due to the help of the senior players who put money of their own to keep it going.

As you can see, we don't have many reasons to be happy, but we have got one reason to keep fighting for: rugby. We don't want to write a letter to make people cry. This is a letter of fighting, a letter of the ones who don't give up. We hail you, Jonah, aiming to maybe one day be as strong as you are. Mind and body. Cheers from all players from 11 to 14 years old and all players in the schools of the Vigo Rugby Club.

(thanks to Fermin de la Calle from http://blogs.as.com/patada_a_seguir for this very special story)

(and my best wishes to all young players of the Vigo Rugby Club)

Super 14 round 7 predictions

Step by step we have reached halfway at the Super 14 (and me fool thinking it had just started). Bulls and Sharks are clearly ahead of the rest, and behind, at least 8 or 9 different teams are fighting to make the semifinals.

This week's match-ups are really interesting:

Blues 38 - Waratahs 27 (This is the no-returning point for the Blues. Last year the game at Sidney showed how poorly prepared were the Blues to be among the top 4. This year it is the Waratahs the bad-looking team)
Highlanders 19 - Bulls 17 (I cannot resist to draw a win for the Highlanders. I just like them)
Crusaders 26 - Stormers 18 (Which Stormers' face shall we see in Christchurch?)
Reds 25 - Chiefs 33 (This should be this week's game)
Sharks 32 - Brumbies 25 (Tough times for Canberra)
Lions 16 - Hurricanes 23 (Which of the two would be harder to imagine: two wins in a row for the Lions or two losses in a row for the Hurricanes?)

Best goal kicker?

Who's the best goal kicker in the NZRU?

Daniel Carter? Stephen Donald? Jimmy Gopperth?

Well, you would be wrong. The golden boot, the man-who-nearly-never-misses has not played a single game of rugby... union.

Yes, Michael Witt, former and I do mean former rugby league player for the Auckland Warriors has just switched codes and will be playing for Otago at the Air New Zealand Cup. He had a wonderful 2008 NRL season, kicking over 90%.

Could he make attendances boost in Dunedin? Can he lift Otago to a decent campaing this year? Will he be playing for the Highlanders next year?

With Daniel Bowden heading to Auckland next year, there's a gap that could be perfect for Witt; the aussie-born has already expressed his desire to perform the haka at test level.

Super 14 2009; players on a roll

Sharks, Bulls and Chiefs have been the most competitive of the last three rounds. But who are the key players that are making the difference?

Halfback: Brendon Leonard. He's astonishingly better every week. How can he? He was impressive against the Western Force, but he did really kick the ass of the Blues last Saturday. Children in New Zealand must be watching him and wishing they will grow up as halfbacks just as he is.

First five: Sorry, Mr Giteau, but the in-form player of the tournament is Morne Steyn. Simply unbelievable with the Bulls, he (and not Mat Goddard) was the main cause of the Bulls win last week in Wellington; he must be in the mind of de Villiers, come Lions time.

Hooker: Aled de Malmanche. True, he has got to improve (and improve and improve and improve) his ball throwing at the line-out, but he's the best battering-ram in the competition by a whole lot. All of a sudden, Hika Elliot is his back-up and it is not for nothing.

Lock: Bakkie Botha. Oh, hell, yes. I know what I said just yesterday about him, but that does not mean that he is not both ruling the line-out in the absence of Matfield and powering everywhere in the field as he always did.

Wing: Sorry for this one, Sivi, but not even 4 tries in a game is enough to cast shadows over the great great great season of Lelia Massaga. He has produced some blistering game so far. I hope Graham Henry will have noticed.

Loose forward: Pierre Spies. Oh, please, I know I'm selecting almost every player of the Bulls here, but who wouldn't?

Prop: You can have two: Chris King and Clint Newlands. Is it a mere chance that they come from the same franchise where Jamie Mackintosh and Carl Hayman grew up?

Midfielder: It must be one of these: Adi Jacobs, Jaque Fourie and Richard Kahui. And... ok, we'll please Spiro Zavos by naming an aussie here, Stirling Mortlock.

Fullback: I see Isaia Toeava in his best Super 14 season.

Bakkies Botha ain't a good guy.

Rugby, as any sport, is a psychological game. As such, psychology tricks work, both on one self, and on the others. Players do know it, coaches do know it and even fans know it.

So, the typical prop tactics of looking upong you as if you were unable to match him in the front row of a scrum, as if silently saying: "What are you doing here, son?" simply work. They do.

The Bulls did win the physical battle against the Hurricanes and they played better in a game that had more of the old Springboks-All Blacks rivalry than it had of the Super 14 Bulls-Hurricanes.

Or so it seemed as fellow Bakkies Botha, not very clever, perhaps, spear-tackled a Hurricanes player and while he was being warned by the referee he made jokes (in Afrikaans, I imagine) of the tackled player (that all his teammates around him laughed, of course).

Two things are clear to me:
- Bakkies Botha ain't an intelligent guy.
- Bakkies Botha ain't a good guy.

A force, a brute, a power of the nature, but not a good guy, for sure.

I do think, however, that the Bulls are the strongest side of a very very open super 14 season.

Super 14 round 6 predictions

Things start to click. I predicted (luckily or by own merits) the trouble that both 'tahs and Sharks had last week. I expected the Sharks to overcome them, but for once the Sharks didn't look so strong this season. The Crusaders-Force was a real difficult one to predict and in the end it could have gone either way.

What's on this week?

Let's see:

Hurricanes 24 - Bulls 21 (The Bulls usually have trouble in New Zealand)
Highlanders 27 - 19 Cheetahs (in a second)
Chiefs 31 - Blues 28 (I cannot really foresee what will be the outcome of it)
Waratahs 15 - Crusaders 12 (A good tactical game, but not very pretty)
Western Force 18 - Sharks 32 (The Sharks strike back)
Lions 14 - Brumbies 26 (Eloff's problems are a mortgage for the struggling Lions)

Frans Steyn at 10

If we are to pay attention to Andy Marinos, Super Rugby is a Sotuh African matter more than anything else.

Therefore, let's pay attention to what really matters: South Africa, South Africa and South Africa.

South Africa lacks a 10. Unlike Australia or New Zealand, there has been no player able to claim a regular start at 10 for a long time. James, despite what my good friend Miff thinks of his (James') performance during the last RWC, has not managed to show he's the right owner of the jersey. The fact that de Villiers is picking Pienaar, a halfback, ahead of him reveals that he's got not much to choose from.

What about South Africa's boy, Frans Steyn? He's gifted, he's strong, he's fast (the only player I have witnessed to ever see a ball of him intercepted by Habana and yet be able to run backwards 50 meters and tackle him) and he's loved by anyone in South Africa.

This weekend he's got a chance. With Pienaar out for 3 or 4 matches, Steyn has got a shot to show his credentials at number 10. What will he show? Will be we all grateful enough to Andy Marinos for letting us watch this pearl playing at 10 ? Do we really deserve such kindness?

Open for everyone.

The 2009 Super 14 is more open than ever. With 11 teams within just 8 points after round 5, even these strange Crusaders can make the semifinals.

Only Cheetahs, Lions and... *sigh*, Highlanders seem not to be contenders. No, I don't resign. The Highlanders are only 10 points away. They can. Yes, they can.

Th point is that this season, specially after this week 5 has witnessed that any team can beat everyone. Waratahs and Sharks lost to Brumbies and Reds respectively. Waratahs have also suffered yet another blow to their front row, with Freier out for the rest of the competition. Something must be asked to their backs when the forward pack is decimated little by little.

Should the Bulls win at Westpack stadium this week, they would be clear favourites to get the first semifinal spot. If they crack like Waratahs and Sharks (and remember that is possible, given the record that the Bulls have in NZ), the Hurricanes will place themselves among the top 4 with ease and looking to the eye to anyone.

Blues, Stormers seem to be back, and the Chiefs didn't look so good at Invercagill as they did two weeks ago in Hamilton.

Things change from week to week and this is, once more, a marathon, a competition to be regular. Who can demonstrate the recipe of what is needed to be a super champion?

Super 14 round 5 predictions

Little by little, the competition begins to get some sense to my dumb understanding.
Last week's results were more understandable for me, although I had not realised (or didn't want to believe) how low have the Crusaders fallen.

The Sharks continue their Australasian trip with a game in Brisbane, while the Bulls and Hurricanes rest with their sights put on the next weekend clash.

This would make some sense to me:

Blues 36 - Cheetahs 18 (Don't look back, you need five from this one)
Brumbies 25 - Waratahs 21 (Canberra vs Sydney games have always favoured the home team)
Crusaders 18 - Western Force 24 (I prefer to be ready for the worst scenario)
Higlanders 23 - Chiefs 34 (Go Highlanders!)
Reds 13 - Sharks 16 (Sharks would do well to start putting an eye on the second part of the competition)
Stormers 20 - Lions 15 (This year the Stormers don't look so good. They need de Villiers to lead them)

Fourth place's curse

The fourth place is one of the most desired places when a team look to their position in the ranks.
While positions one and two usually have long-term owners, there's an enormous fight to get the other two positions that qualify for the playoffs.

Last year, there was hardly a week when the fourth placed would not go down to lose the next game and fall to 5th, 6th or 7th. Force, Blues, Chiefs, Stormers and Hurricanes kept fighting to the very last game for the possibility to classify as 4th. In most of the cases, being placed 4th was a curse for the next game.

So must be John Mitchell thinking right now. After last week's display at Canberra and being able to get as far as 4th placed, they have fallen at Hamilton 31-13 to the Chiefs who get 5 points from this one and blow the starting whistle, signalling that their season is finally started. Depending on the outcome of this weekend's games, they may well be just 6 points away from the playoffs. May the others start running as the Chiefs run has already started.

But beware Chiefs. Getting there is not enough. Last year you kept climbing on until you reached the fourth place. Then you fell.

Get classified, but you'd do well to avoid resting at the fourth place.

Super 14 round 4 predictions

Naked, "crystal ball"-less and having misserably failed to understand what would happen in round 3, I'm only proud for my right prediction of the game at Cape Town.

The game at Canberra was a shock, and the one at Hamilton, a pity.

So, without any skills or preternatural aid, let's see if I have enough wits to decypher what's going on.

Chiefs 33 - Force 26 (I still believe in this team)
Waratahs 23 - Reds 15 (Who can stop the 'tahs?)
Hurricanes 38 - Cheetahs 18 (Things start going smoothly for the 'canes)
Blues 24 - Sharks 20 (Defense against the Sharks. Defense)
Highlanders 22 - Crusaders 34 (The Crusaders are a very good team)
Bulls 15 - Stormers 13 (I have got a friend who says that games between SA sides follow their own logic. I agree)

A little help for the Crusaders

The Crusaders are the Super team. They have the tradition, they have the passion and they have the winning attitude.

What they may be lacking is luck.

Forced absences: Robbie Deans, Daniel Carter, Scott Hamilton, Greg Sommerville, Mose Tu'iali and Ali Williams.

"Bad-luck added absences": Leon MacDonald, Andy Ellis, Brad Thorn, Corey Flynn.
Besides, a number of other senior players, most notably Richie McCaw, have not featured in at least one game due to injury.

And after this long list, their brave coach, takes it on the chin and says that it is due to their own errors (mostly at goal kicking, where Colin Slade is 4 from 11 and Brett is 2 from 4) that they have lost against Brumbies and Hurricanes.

The Crusaders are an amazing team; no doubt I will pick them for five points against my beloved Highlanders next week and perhaps they will cement their position on the upper part of the ranks.

But one bad news at a time, please; injuries to Flynn, Ellis, Thorn and MacDonald seem a plot against them.

Not my team, but a team that I admire; may goddess Nikhé smile upon them again.

Hurricanes, eternal contenders

Shwalger, Hore, Tialata, Thrush, Eaton, Waldrom, Lavave, So'oailo, Weepu, Kirkpatrick, Gear, Nonu, Smith, Guilford, Jane.

Would anyone dare to deny Hurricanes claims to have a team good enough to win it all? And yet, only after rounds one and two we have started to see them playing the way we know they ought to.

Only a good win against the Cheetahs next week is acceptable. If we are to think that the loss against the Waratahs was an exception, the Hurricanes should show it on the field. Winning at Christchurch was a good effort, but we all know they are capable of good efforts. What we do need to believe is that they can win 5 games in a row.

Or else they are not ready to win this Super 14.

Beware Blues

Three rounds are gone now, and from the "big three" (Crusaders, Waratahs and Sharks) of the opening round, we have moved onto the "new big three" where only the Bulls have replaced the Crusaders and nothing else has changed.

If only, the Hurricanes begin to deliver while Blues and Force have surprisingly performed quite well.

Auckland's fans, quite particularly, seem to have tons of reasons to be happy. Their point is that in a talented team, plagued by injuries and an unusual share of fatherhood leaves, 10 points from the first three rounds is a good record, provided the three games have been away. Defence way seems to have been learnt this weekend when the Stormers were only able to score 8 points.

Good one. Can't argue with it, can you?

Well, let's see. I remember last year's Blues season and their first three rounds were quite impressive. 3 wins and 15 points were clearly a better start of the season. The trip to South Africa started in round 2 and it also included 2 wins and one defeat and the Blues collected 11 points compared to this year's 10. The problems with the Blues came after it. Losses to the Force (at home), Waratahs and Brumbies (at home) almost automatically left them out of the semifinals race.

This year has not started better for them and the hard yards lay ahead. Hurricanes, Sharks, Waratahs and Brumbies await. While it is true they are on the good track, the main obstacles still are to come.

So beware, Blues.

Super 14 round 3: Predictions

Last week both New Zealand powerhorses, Blues and Crusaders left me. The Blues were over-powered by the Bulls and the Crusaders did a 'Highlanders' when hey let the Brumbies score the winning converted try during injury time.

So, my crystal ball now has got a scrap but is not shattered yet.

Let's see what the weekend games will bring, perhaps my palantir will break at last:

Crusaders 19 - Hurricanes 11 (Sorry folks, but the Crusaders are just too good)
Chiefs 25 - Sharks 24 (Do no underestimate them, the Chiefs are a great team)
Waratahs 32 - Highlanders 23 (Defense, guys, defense)
Brumbies 30 - Force 18 (They are on a roll)
Stormers 24 - Blues 29 (Attack, guys, attack)
Lions 20 - Bulls 18 (It's amazing how powerful are the Bulls at home, isn't it?)
Reds 24 - Cheetahs 13 (So that would leave Cheetahs and Highlanders winless, wouldn't it?)

If you are in a mood to see a good rugby match, pay attention to the Sharks at Hamilton.

PS: Isn't it amazing to see me predicting such a South African debacle?

Questions: What's going on?

I'm totally shocked.

Super 14 rounds 1 and 2 are gone and New Zealand franchises are really struggling to get results while things certainly seem so easy for Sharks, Bulls and Waratahs. The best three New Zealand sides have the same amount of wins than both the Force and the Lions have while the worst are at the Reds and Cheetahs level.

So, what's going on?

Graham Henry may complain about injuries to the leading senior players: Ali Williams, Mils Muliaina, Sione Lauaki, Richie McCaw, Andrew Hore, Conrad Smith, Brad Thorn, Jimmy Cowan, Piri Weepu, Andy Ellis, Leon MacDonald... to name a few ones, have at least not played one of the two first matches due to injury.

But even if we accept that these players need three spare months during the summer after a long season (last season consisted of 13 Super 14 matches + one or two ANC matches + 15 tests), isn't it alarming the apparent lack of quality backups? Shouldn't the backups be ready to take their chances when the senior players aren't there?

While Laulala, Bowden, Vainikolo and Masaga were keen to take the leading roles in the first round, who took the reins for the Crusaders against the Brumbies? What happened to the Blues in Pretoria?

Is there a lack of depth? Do New Zealand rely on the past or are there talented youngsters coming in? What will happen in round 3?

Bonus question: Why Australia and South Africa seem unaffected by this rare disease that is affecting New Zealand teams during this start of the season?

Super 14 round 2: Predictions

My crystall ball went pretty well last week to foresee what would happen in the Super 14.

Therefore, I am risking it again. Crystal is fragile and it can be broken if I made three or more mistakes ;-)

Hurricanes 38 - Highlanders 32 (I like the idea of Highlanders gathering 2 points again)
Waratahs 30 - Chiefs 25 (You cannot possibly imagine how much I would like to see the other way around)
Western Force 26 - Cheetahs 17 (Let's give Mitchell a chance)
Stormers 30 - Reds 19 (For the sake of the Stormers, they ought to get a bonus point from this one)
Brumbies 19 - Crusaders 24 (Beware if the Brumbies manage to win)
Sharks 14 -Lions 10 (Skeptical about the Sharks or expecting too much of the Lions?)
Bulls 17 - Blues 24 (This is this week's game)

Super 14 week one: review

Highlanders - Brumbies was a good match to see, but a bad game to play. 2 points are not enough for the Highlanders.

Lions - Cheetahs did not show much, really.

Crusaders - Chiefs was another good match to see. The Chiefs are much improved and they can be real contenders this year. The Crusaders were Crusaders-standard.

Western Force - Blues game could deceive you. The Blues have got everything to prove yet, the Force is not a force.

Hurricanes - Waratahs was the same story of last year. Either team lacks just exactly what the other team possesses: either glamour or defense.

Bulls - Reds was a pity. The Reds have got quality.

Stormers - Sharks showed us that the West Province needs something more than just Schalk Burger.

Welcome, ladies and gentlemen to the Super14. Shall we call it the last Super14?

New-look, same mistakes.

It cannot be. It simply cannot be.

When you are in a come-back like the one the Highlanders did against the Brumbies earlier today, you cannot let them slip away with a last-gasp drop-goal.

2 points are not enough for this game. 5 tries are not enough, losing by two is not enough! It's the winning mood the one that must be targeted. Play will come afterwards. It is a matter of realising your chances. The Highlanders may not have many; they should be clinical. Clinical, clinical, clinical.

If they lose after a good play, what will happen when they don't play so well?

Highlanders 31 - Brumbies 33

Super 14 round one: Predictions

Next Friday the Super 14 kicks off. Finally. At last.

We have been waiting. We have even tried to understand the ever highly ilogical results of the pre-season games, hopelessly, of course.

Although I am not half as successful as my old friend Miff is when it comes to look to the crystal ball, I will try to give my predictions each round.

Highlanders 22 - Brumbies 17 (I told you this year the sturdy Otago men were my team)
Lions 28 - Cheetahs 22 (Nah, I don't believe it, either)
Crusaders 24 - Chiefs 21 (Brett is better than Donald, although Leonard is better than Ellis)
Stormers 18 - Sharks 22 (Forget what they say in Newlands, WP did sink at the Currie Cup)
Bulls 34 - Reds 20 (I would very much like to see the scores reverted, but my crystall ball just does not agree)
Hurricanes 17 - Waratahs 15 (That is with Ripia at 10. If Weepu starts at first five, just switch the scores)
Western Force 19 - Blues 28 (Mitchell would be a wonderful coach for ANY franchise, except those NOT based in Christchurch. Mitchell, don't use the Force.)

All eyes suddenly turn to him

After what had to be a glorious game in Paris, he being the man who lifted his side to draw against the almighty Stade de France, Daniel Carter got injured and his season is over.

And all of a sudden, kiwi hearts beat in anxiety. Who's to replace him for the All Blacks?

In Christchurch they don't pronounce his name but in whispers, as no one dares to compare him yet to the great D.C. But he's made of pure gold and now he's more than ever the man to which all eyes have silently turned.

Let me tell you his name in a whisper,

He's Stephen Brett.

A great champion's bitter defeat

After a hard-fought battle, the loss was a bitter end of the tournament for this great champion.

Leinster and Harlequins repeating Nucifora's mistakes

No Blues side has possibly ever been stronger than 2008 Blues. To their already fearsome forward pack, the signing of star first five Nick Evans from the Highlanders drew a very pleasant perspective for their 2008 Super 14 campaing. Evans, alongside with Rokocoko, Nacewa, Tuitavake, Toeava and Wulf formed a promising line-up.

The fact that the Blues did not even reach the last 4 despite an outstanding start with 15 points during their first three games suggests a big question mark over the former Blues head coach David Nucifora.

The quality was undoubtedly there. But apparent lack of form of Toeava first and Nick Evans afterwards, injuries to Evans, Rokocoko and Nacewa and strange tactical decissions like those of switching Nacewa and Evans eventually lead to a bitter 6th position for the Blues.

Possibly the strangest decission that Nucifora took was switching Evans to fullback and Nacewa to first five eighths. What was the point of it? Nacewa spent 2007 playing at first five for the Blues while at the same time he said that his favourite position was wing. 2008 saw him trying at fullback while the number 10 was automatically given to Evans.

Why switch them? Is not Nacewa better fullback than Evans? Is not Evans possibly one of the two best first five in the world?

It amazed me last week during Heineken Cup to see again Nick Evans playing at 15 for the 'Quins while Nacewa wore the Leinster 10 jersey.

People taking care for these two sides, don't you have enough money to sign whoever you want? There is no excuse if you lack a better 10 than Nacewa and there is no possible reason that I can envisage for switching Evans to 15.

Well, not entirely true; there's one, but he's playing for Perpignan this season.

Super 14: Warm up

Super 14 is closer and closer. This is a selection of news related to Super 14.

• Refereeing politics change: The time when a referee for a match was chosen based on the nationality is over. SANZAR will start naming referees based on merit, regardless of the nationality.
• Saracens to play a match against the Stormers (the same weekend, although two days before, Saracens will have played their ECC game against Mont de Marsan in France) at Newlands.
• Warm-up matches for the weekend: Blues - Hurricanes; Chiefs - Highlanders; Stormers - Saracens; Crusaders - Force; Sharks- Cheetahs; Waratahs - Reds.
• Brumbies have just signed rookie Matt Toomua, to fill in the first five position. (So confident were they that Giteau was coming back)

Latest News: Michalak is a halfback

French head coach Marc Lievrèmont has reportedly said:

"For me, Fred is more of a scrumhalf but he currently plays at first five at Toulouse and for me, in that position, he's behind guys like Lionel Beauxis and David Skrela at the moment"

Queer coaching decissions

Harlequins have specialized this season at come-back. Against Leicester, Stade de France and many others, their will and their cool heads have taken them to important scores. It must be said that Nick Evans has often been the executing weapon of a Quins side who never give up.

Against Ulster, things looked pretty much the same when, after trailing 12-0 at halftime, the Harlequins recovered to trail only 16-10 with 10 minutes to go and a very kickable penalty for the english side.

"16-13 and 10 minutes to get possession and have another score" I said to myself.

But then the english coach (Dean Richards) decided he had enough of good results and he wanted to risk everything. Malone in for Evans.

Pardon?????????????????

I mean, Malone has not played a single minute, Evans is your specialist and you are close to it... What's going so wrong to change everything?

Nevermind, Malone kicks to goal and misses. Five minutes later, a kick of his is intercepted and Ulster Scores. Game over. 21-10.

It will not be published anywhere, as Stade de France has lost today and the Harlequins are already classified, having a 6-point advantage with one game to go.

Justin Marshall signs for the Saracens

It seems his fight with Montpellier is over and he's been released to sign for the english club. Justin Marshall will be then, if my reckoning isn't wrong, the first kiwi to have played in all four top european competitions: Magners, Top 14, Guinness and Heineken Cup.

Not a bad feat for a player who has consistently been an outstanding performer at his position for over a decade.

But clearly, Marshall's situation at the french club and his change to Saracens does mean something's not going right for him.

What is it?

Maybe 12 years at the highest level are too much.

Maybe... could it be time for Justin Marshall to start thinking about putting an end to his career?

Northern hemisphere competitions

So, less than one month to kick the Super 14 and here I am watching a few games of the northern hemisphere competitions, which is not that bad, really. What can be said about the four top competitions?

Top 14: This is a matter of 3 teams. And, unlike rugby in the south, in the north the presence of Carter won't change anything. The title is meant to got to Toulouse, mark my words, with Stade Français coming close at the second place. Ever since watching them at the Heineken Cup I like Clermont Auvergne more than any other french team. Worth to watch a game.

Guiness Premiership: The best thing that has happened to this league this season in Nick Evans. However, much like in the french case, a player won't change anything and I don't see anyone able to prevent Bath, Gloucester or Irish to get the trophy. I would very much like to see the Quins or the Saracens trying, though.

Magners League: Ospreys? Munster? Leinster? This is by a lot, the less predictable competition. Munster, as strong as they are, are not consistent enough to grant them the championship, although they are hot favourites. But the Ospreys have gathered a strong side, beware.

Heinken Cup. Just 4 rounds have been played and all is to be decided yet, in the Top european championship. This year, the bets should go on to french teams, specially Toulouse, but Munster, Irish or Gloucester also look very strong. Beware with the Quins, they have not beaten Stade Français twice for nothing.

My bets are on:

Top 14: Toulouse

Guinness: Bath

Magners: Ospreys

Heineken Cup: Toulouse.

Cipriani: Enough is enough

I liked this guy one year ago. He looked like a real promise, a project of a player. A good player. But we have been fed Cipriani for breakfast, Cipriani for lunch and Cipriani for tea, dinner, supper and even during slumb.

And the guy does not deserve it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

He cannot behave, he cannot kick, he cannot lead England and he simply WILL NEVER BE a good rugby player.

The last news from him is that he might be better looking for some aid for his kicking in the NFL.

Oh, please, do not make me laugh. Hundreds of players in South Africa and New Zealand are just younger, better and no one pays any attention to them. They make it their own way and no whole country will give them any advise for him to eventually become the fucking national hero. Much unlike Cipriani.

He's only 21 and he's already burnt out.

Please, do not talk to me about Cipriani again unless he scores a hat trick against the Springboks or the All Blacks. I just can't stand it.

All Blacks only lose, they never win

Happy new year to you all.

Now that I have finally filled in a facebook profile, I've it clear: I prefer losing my time here, writing stupid things about rugby, as I always do, than writing stupid things anywhere else.

And to kick 2009 off in fashion, my first thought; about the All Blacks, of course, what else?

Outside New Zealand, the history of the All Blacks is built upon a hundred years long list of defeats.

Indeed.

Have any doubts about it?

Let me remind you which memorable AB's games you have in mind.

1905. Wales defeated the All Blacks 3-0 in their first match-up in what eventually came up to be the only defeat of the "Originals" tour (34 wins and a single loss)

1936. Obolensky scored two tries in the first defeat of the All Blacks against England 13-0.

1973. Barbarians - All Blacks. The game that any POM (and POM-lovers) recall as the best game of rugby ever played.

1978. Munster defeat the All Blacks 12-0. The only reason for irish (any irish) to still play rugby, according to many, Monsieur Rugbycan included.

2007. France 20 - All Blacks 18. Choke. Choke. Choke. Choke. Choker.

*Sigh*

If you happen to be a southerner, or by any chance you know anything about real rugby, sorry, I mean southern-hemisphere rugby, your ideas about the All Blacks might well be truly different. You will surely remember 2000's thrilling end of the Tri-Nations tournament, when a tank disguised of left wing called Jonah Lomu scored the decissive try in injury time to give the All Blacks the game against the Wallabies, the BC and the 3N. Or you might recall Gregan's tackle on Jeff Wilson or maybe his famous "4 more years, boys" or perhaps the last-gasp try at the House of Pain last June that gave the Springboks their first win in New Zealand (first ever at Carisbrook, Dunedin) in 5 years. But then, you will agree with me, we are a minority.

For the rest of the world, the history of the All Blacks is built upon defeats, much like those of chessplayer Jose Raúl Capablanca or tennis player Roger Federer, individuals whose victories were deemed normal and whose defeats were always first-page news.

Stop it

It has happened again.

Adam Thomson is the one who has not been able to behave. And he is not guiltier than many others.

I am seriously considering changing my 2009 Highlanders allegiance if nothing changes or this goes on.

Please stop it.

Heineken Cup hangover

Ironically, the day that Daniel Carter started his season in the northern hemisphere, the best player of the day was in another match.

If you ask me why I like Evans so much, why I consider him most unfortunate for the focus always being on the cantabrian (not that I don't like him a lot), just watch the (at times) best first five in the world in action.

Dan Carter at Perpignan

If we are to pay attention to all that speak about rugby, the 7-month sabbatical that Daniel Carter is taking in Perpignan is going to change the face of rugby world.

You can see it in most blogs and newspapers' webs. They are all awaiting the kick-off of the first Carter's game for Perpignan (against Leicester Tigers).

Is it deserved? Can Carter bring the first title to a club that has always been there but never crossed the goal line in first position? It is not going to be easy for the man from Canterbury. The biggest thing of the northern hemisphere rugby is that there are thousands of competitors; it is true at domestic competitions, but especially at the global competitions such as the Heineken Cup. I am no clairvoyant and therefore, I cannot tell the future. But I find Carter has what is needed; Carter could be the man, yes. No matter how difficult it can be, he has got it, and will take Perpignan, if not to the heavens of the Heineken Cup, to be the reference team in Europe, and of course, in France.

The never-ending stare and the game that witnessed two hakas

The never-ending stare


The game that witnessed two hakas

Dan Carter at home

You know I like to from time to time post something less relevant. This time is about Dan Carter. Do you know why is he one of the best kickers?



I wonder if his house in Perpignan does have one of these.

A last word on the November Tour

There is one last thing I would like to say about the November tour.

The prospect of facing the All Blacks has led to a lot of addo in every country, a lot of talking about the haka, about the kiwi arrogance and a lot of media talking up the chances of any national side or talking down the greatness of an All Blacks team that had a lot to prove after a horrendous World Cup Campaign.

The plain truth is that every national side is under pressure when playing the All Blacks at home.

On the other hand, the best game of the tour has not been a test. Munster, by heart, by will, have undoubtedly been the best opposition the All Blacks have faced. No pressure at all for Munster when playing the All Blacks, and a great privilege for the players. And even nowadays, when players are paid millions to play rugby, passion and will are the most dreadful weapons. Wayne Smith, All Blacks backs coach said it best: "We have seen teams go out and just about die for a cause on this tour. I have never seen a team like Munster so beaten up after a game."

A good reason for longer tours, is it not?

My 2009 super 14 franchise

So sorry, but I couldn't stand watching yesterday games at the HC. I tried to watch the Stade Français vs Harlequins and it was boring. But afterwards I made a major mistake in the Leicester Tigers vs Perpignan. Horrible.

Therefore I turn back again my face to southern rugby and I am chosing my franchise for the 2009 Super 14.

Last year I picked both Hurricanes and Blues. The Hurricanes did well, but the Blues were simply too irregular after a bludgeoning start and despite a wonderful last rounds.

This year, I am switching totally my allegiance. I will, as usual, cheer all kiwi sides, but my priorities will be on the southernmost side of the country. This season I will follow the Highlanders.

I feel that, given the current status of New Zealand rugby, the great improvers of this 2009 will be the Highlanders and that's why I want to be the first to say: I already foresaw it!!!!

So, go Highlanders!!!!!!!!!!!

News Salad

Here you have a brief mix of the relevant news in the last hours

• The Wallabies beat the BaaBaas 18-11: Take this as an example of what Deans' teams do when it matters most. These wallabies have talent on the pool and will grow up quicker than any other nation during 2009
• Carl Hayman is keen to stay in England: So rumours that he could be coming back to NZ should not be heard. Should they?
• The Pacific Islanders want to join in the 3N: Yeah, they have got almost the same chance than I have of being included.
• Leon MacDonald shall play next season: This is the best news of the month. Too bad Julian Huxley won't be playing, too.
• Johnson' project is a long-term on: When did Brian Ashton know his was a short-term one?
• George Gregan is still the best aussie scrumhalf: (no printed source, but just watch the game)
  

All Blacks vs Irish and British Lions